Yabloko, Russia's longstanding liberal opposition party and sole registered group openly advocating a ceasefire in Ukraine, faces structural barriers that have kept its national support below 2% in recent federal cycles and around 3% in 2026 polling. Systematic candidate disqualifications—over 30 barred on extremism or foreign-agent grounds—combined with leadership restrictions have limited campaign capacity ahead of the September 2026 State Duma vote. The August 10 Supreme Court ruling removing the party from the ballot after a Rodina challenge further reduces any realistic path to the 5% proportional threshold, reinforcing trader consensus around the low implied probability for a “Yes” outcome. Historical precedent of consistent underperformance, administrative pressure on regional branches, and the absence of measurable polling momentum sustain this positioning, even as the party appeals the exclusion. Late reinstatement via successful legal challenge or an unforeseen late swing in voter sentiment remain the narrowest scenarios that could still alter results before final vote tabulation.