**No vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2026 is currently priced at 78% by traders.** This reflects the absence of confirmed retirements or health-related departures among the nine sitting justices as of early September 2026, combined with explicit statements of continuity from key members. The court’s composition remains stable, with the oldest justices—Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76)—showing no signs of stepping down. In August 2026, Alito directly addressed speculation by stating he intends to serve “another term,” referring to the October 2026–June/July 2027 term that begins shortly after the current date. An erroneous June 2026 NPR report suggesting his retirement was quickly retracted and did not reflect any official announcement. No other justices have signaled plans to retire in the remaining months of 2026, and there have been no reported health events or institutional pressures that would typically precede a vacancy. Recent congressional activity, including the House’s early September rejection of a Republican-backed constitutional amendment to permanently cap the court at nine seats, highlights partisan concerns over future court size but does not indicate an imminent opening. President Trump has maintained a shortlist of potential nominees, yet this preparation alone has not shifted probabilities given the lack of actual departures. Political risk factors, such as Senate control after the 2026 midterms or any unexpected events, remain possible but are viewed by traders as low-probability catalysts for a 2026 vacancy. The market therefore embeds the historical pattern that Supreme Court retirements are infrequent without advance signals and are concentrated around term endings or presidential transitions.