**No constitutional referendum has been announced in Turkey in 2026, and recent statements from senior officials indicate it remains unlikely before year-end.** President Erdogan faces a two-term limit under the current presidential system established by the 2017 referendum. Discussions center on enabling a third term for the May 2028 elections, primarily through a parliamentary vote (requiring 360 of 600 seats) to call early elections under Article 116, rather than a full constitutional amendment or referendum. Presidential legal advisor Mehmet Uçum stated on August 27 that any new constitution—even if approved by 400 votes in parliament—must still go to a popular vote, but he assessed completion as improbable in the current 28th legislative period and more likely in the next. The ruling AKP-MHP alliance has floated the idea of amendments but has not advanced a draft or secured the necessary support, while polls show public division on changes favoring Erdogan. Broader legislative efforts, such as the August 2026 “Terror-Free Türkiye” law passed with 468 votes, demonstrate cross-party cooperation on other priorities without triggering constitutional processes. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus against an announcement occurring in 2026.