President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing amid Russian and Chinese advances created initial market movement, but Energy Department clarifications limited activity to non-critical system tests rather than explosive detonations. The U.S. has observed a testing moratorium since 1992, now the longest such period globally, with Nevada state opposition and logistical, safety, and arms-control constraints reinforcing trader skepticism. New START expiration in February 2026 and ongoing great-power competition remain key variables that could prompt policy shifts, though congressional oversight proposals and verification norms continue to raise barriers to any full-yield test by late 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการทดสอบนิวเคลียร์ของสหรัฐอเมริกาโดย...?
การทดสอบนิวเคลียร์ของสหรัฐอเมริกาโดย...?
$767,583 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
30 กันยายน 2026
1%
31 ธันวาคม 2026
7%
$767,583 ปริมาณ
30 กันยายน 2026
$57,045 ปริมาณ
1%
31 ธันวาคม 2026
$49,728 ปริมาณ
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing amid Russian and Chinese advances created initial market movement, but Energy Department clarifications limited activity to non-critical system tests rather than explosive detonations. The U.S. has observed a testing moratorium since 1992, now the longest such period globally, with Nevada state opposition and logistical, safety, and arms-control constraints reinforcing trader skepticism. New START expiration in February 2026 and ongoing great-power competition remain key variables that could prompt policy shifts, though congressional oversight proposals and verification norms continue to raise barriers to any full-yield test by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$767,583วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing amid Russian and Chinese advances created initial market movement, but Energy Department clarifications limited activity to non-critical system tests rather than explosive detonations. The U.S. has observed a testing moratorium since 1992, now the longest such period globally, with Nevada state opposition and logistical, safety, and arms-control constraints reinforcing trader skepticism. New START expiration in February 2026 and ongoing great-power competition remain key variables that could prompt policy shifts, though congressional oversight proposals and verification norms continue to raise barriers to any full-yield test by late 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$767,583วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing amid Russian and Chinese advances created initial market movement, but Energy Department clarifications limited activity to non-critical system tests rather than explosive detonations. The U.S. has observed a testing moratorium since 1992, now the longest such period globally, with Nevada state opposition and logistical, safety, and arms-control constraints reinforcing trader skepticism. New START expiration in February 2026 and ongoing great-power competition remain key variables that could prompt policy shifts, though congressional oversight proposals and verification norms continue to raise barriers to any full-yield test by late 2026.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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