US-Israel airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including underground enrichment sites at Natanz and Isfahan, resetting Iran's breakout timeline to months despite prior stockpiles of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, per IAEA reports from February and March. No radiation spikes or evidence of a nuclear test have been detected post-strikes, with Iran denying weapons development amid leadership upheaval following Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported assassination. IAEA access remains blocked at bombed sites, but UN nuclear chief's April 15 call for inspections ties to potential US-Iran deal talks to end hostilities. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects these military setbacks, diplomatic pressures, and sanctions as major barriers, though rapid covert rebuilding or regime shift could alter odds before 2027 resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$170,772 ปริมาณ
$170,772 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$170,772 ปริมาณ
$170,772 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including underground enrichment sites at Natanz and Isfahan, resetting Iran's breakout timeline to months despite prior stockpiles of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, per IAEA reports from February and March. No radiation spikes or evidence of a nuclear test have been detected post-strikes, with Iran denying weapons development amid leadership upheaval following Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported assassination. IAEA access remains blocked at bombed sites, but UN nuclear chief's April 15 call for inspections ties to potential US-Iran deal talks to end hostilities. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects these military setbacks, diplomatic pressures, and sanctions as major barriers, though rapid covert rebuilding or regime shift could alter odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
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$170,772วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including underground enrichment sites at Natanz and Isfahan, resetting Iran's breakout timeline to months despite prior stockpiles of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, per IAEA reports from February and March. No radiation spikes or evidence of a nuclear test have been detected post-strikes, with Iran denying weapons development amid leadership upheaval following Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported assassination. IAEA access remains blocked at bombed sites, but UN nuclear chief's April 15 call for inspections ties to potential US-Iran deal talks to end hostilities. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects these military setbacks, diplomatic pressures, and sanctions as major barriers, though rapid covert rebuilding or regime shift could alter odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$170,772วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israel airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026, severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including underground enrichment sites at Natanz and Isfahan, resetting Iran's breakout timeline to months despite prior stockpiles of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, per IAEA reports from February and March. No radiation spikes or evidence of a nuclear test have been detected post-strikes, with Iran denying weapons development amid leadership upheaval following Supreme Leader Khamenei's reported assassination. IAEA access remains blocked at bombed sites, but UN nuclear chief's April 15 call for inspections ties to potential US-Iran deal talks to end hostilities. Trader consensus at 92.5% "No" reflects these military setbacks, diplomatic pressures, and sanctions as major barriers, though rapid covert rebuilding or regime shift could alter odds before 2027 resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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