Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and follow-on operations through early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with most declared centrifuges, leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports as of September 2026 confirm lost continuity of knowledge on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, now likely buried under rubble, with inspectors denied access to bombed facilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to a US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and downblending material, while public warnings from US officials target any rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and Iran's public stance continues to affirm a non-weapons NPT commitment amid heightened international monitoring.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% โอกาส
$251,646 ปริมาณ
$251,646 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
5% โอกาส
$251,646 ปริมาณ
$251,646 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and follow-on operations through early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with most declared centrifuges, leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports as of September 2026 confirm lost continuity of knowledge on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, now likely buried under rubble, with inspectors denied access to bombed facilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to a US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and downblending material, while public warnings from US officials target any rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and Iran's public stance continues to affirm a non-weapons NPT commitment amid heightened international monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$251,646วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and follow-on operations through early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with most declared centrifuges, leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports as of September 2026 confirm lost continuity of knowledge on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, now likely buried under rubble, with inspectors denied access to bombed facilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to a US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and downblending material, while public warnings from US officials target any rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and Iran's public stance continues to affirm a non-weapons NPT commitment amid heightened international monitoring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$251,646วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and follow-on operations through early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with most declared centrifuges, leaving the program largely dormant. IAEA reports as of September 2026 confirm lost continuity of knowledge on Iran's stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, now likely buried under rubble, with inspectors denied access to bombed facilities. Ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to a US-Iran memorandum of understanding emphasize maintaining the status quo and downblending material, while public warnings from US officials target any rebuilding at sites like Pickaxe Mountain. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and Iran's public stance continues to affirm a non-weapons NPT commitment amid heightened international monitoring.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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