President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China generated immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary ruled out explosive detonations in favor of subcritical experiments and simulations. The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive tests since 1992 and maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for any underground detonation at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed the last bilateral constraint, while congressional proposals seek to require legislative approval before any resumption. These technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers underpin traders’ low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026, with outcomes remaining highly sensitive to future executive announcements or verified foreign test activity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการทดสอบนิวเคลียร์ของสหรัฐอเมริกาโดย...?
การทดสอบนิวเคลียร์ของสหรัฐอเมริกาโดย...?
$667,628 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
30 มิถุนายน 2026
2%
30 กันยายน 2026
5%
31 ธันวาคม 2026
9%
$667,628 ปริมาณ
30 มิถุนายน 2026
$40,220 ปริมาณ
2%
30 กันยายน 2026
$6,673 ปริมาณ
5%
31 ธันวาคม 2026
$10,517 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China generated immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary ruled out explosive detonations in favor of subcritical experiments and simulations. The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive tests since 1992 and maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for any underground detonation at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed the last bilateral constraint, while congressional proposals seek to require legislative approval before any resumption. These technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers underpin traders’ low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026, with outcomes remaining highly sensitive to future executive announcements or verified foreign test activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$667,628วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China generated immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary ruled out explosive detonations in favor of subcritical experiments and simulations. The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive tests since 1992 and maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for any underground detonation at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed the last bilateral constraint, while congressional proposals seek to require legislative approval before any resumption. These technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers underpin traders’ low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026, with outcomes remaining highly sensitive to future executive announcements or verified foreign test activity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$667,628วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China generated immediate market attention, yet subsequent clarifications from the Energy Secretary ruled out explosive detonations in favor of subcritical experiments and simulations. The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive tests since 1992 and maintains readiness timelines of 24–36 months for any underground detonation at the Nevada National Security Site. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed the last bilateral constraint, while congressional proposals seek to require legislative approval before any resumption. These technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers underpin traders’ low implied probabilities for a test by late 2026, with outcomes remaining highly sensitive to future executive announcements or verified foreign test activity.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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