President Trump's October 2025 statements directing nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with rivals prompted market activity, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright and other officials emphasized non-explosive system tests and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. has upheld its 1992 moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for arsenal confidence. Congressional provisions in the FY2026 defense authorization maintain the ban unless another state conducts a test, while internal planning documents target readiness timelines extending into 2028. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to the absence of confirmed explosive activity and institutional preference for non-proliferation stability. Scheduled budget reviews and diplomatic engagements could influence future shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการทดสอบนิวเคลียร์ของสหรัฐอเมริกาโดย...?
การทดสอบนิวเคลียร์ของสหรัฐอเมริกาโดย...?
$794,203 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
30 กันยายน 2026
1%
31 ธันวาคม 2026
5%
$794,203 ปริมาณ
30 กันยายน 2026
$57,435 ปริมาณ
1%
31 ธันวาคม 2026
$75,957 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with rivals prompted market activity, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright and other officials emphasized non-explosive system tests and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. has upheld its 1992 moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for arsenal confidence. Congressional provisions in the FY2026 defense authorization maintain the ban unless another state conducts a test, while internal planning documents target readiness timelines extending into 2028. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to the absence of confirmed explosive activity and institutional preference for non-proliferation stability. Scheduled budget reviews and diplomatic engagements could influence future shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$794,203วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 statements directing nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with rivals prompted market activity, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright and other officials emphasized non-explosive system tests and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. has upheld its 1992 moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for arsenal confidence. Congressional provisions in the FY2026 defense authorization maintain the ban unless another state conducts a test, while internal planning documents target readiness timelines extending into 2028. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to the absence of confirmed explosive activity and institutional preference for non-proliferation stability. Scheduled budget reviews and diplomatic engagements could influence future shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$794,203วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 statements directing nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with rivals prompted market activity, yet subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright and other officials emphasized non-explosive system tests and subcritical experiments rather than full-yield detonations. The U.S. has upheld its 1992 moratorium on explosive nuclear tests, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for arsenal confidence. Congressional provisions in the FY2026 defense authorization maintain the ban unless another state conducts a test, while internal planning documents target readiness timelines extending into 2028. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, with low implied probabilities tied to the absence of confirmed explosive activity and institutional preference for non-proliferation stability. Scheduled budget reviews and diplomatic engagements could influence future shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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