The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—driven by its push for greater production flexibility to match expanded capacity amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and quota disagreements with Saudi Arabia—remains the dominant recent development. This reduced the group to 11 members and highlighted fractures over output limits, yet no additional departures have followed. Reports in June flagged Iraq weighing an exit unless quotas rose, while August coverage noted Venezuela considering withdrawal, but both countries have stayed in the organization. Core OPEC+ producers have since focused on phased quota adjustments and 2027 baseline reviews without triggering further exits. With only months left in 2026 and remaining members prioritizing coordinated supply management, trader consensus assigns a 61.5% implied probability to no further departures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
39% โอกาส
$174,404 ปริมาณ
$174,404 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
39% โอกาส
$174,404 ปริมาณ
$174,404 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—driven by its push for greater production flexibility to match expanded capacity amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and quota disagreements with Saudi Arabia—remains the dominant recent development. This reduced the group to 11 members and highlighted fractures over output limits, yet no additional departures have followed. Reports in June flagged Iraq weighing an exit unless quotas rose, while August coverage noted Venezuela considering withdrawal, but both countries have stayed in the organization. Core OPEC+ producers have since focused on phased quota adjustments and 2027 baseline reviews without triggering further exits. With only months left in 2026 and remaining members prioritizing coordinated supply management, trader consensus assigns a 61.5% implied probability to no further departures.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$174,404วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—driven by its push for greater production flexibility to match expanded capacity amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and quota disagreements with Saudi Arabia—remains the dominant recent development. This reduced the group to 11 members and highlighted fractures over output limits, yet no additional departures have followed. Reports in June flagged Iraq weighing an exit unless quotas rose, while August coverage noted Venezuela considering withdrawal, but both countries have stayed in the organization. Core OPEC+ producers have since focused on phased quota adjustments and 2027 baseline reviews without triggering further exits. With only months left in 2026 and remaining members prioritizing coordinated supply management, trader consensus assigns a 61.5% implied probability to no further departures.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$174,404วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The UAE's exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026—driven by its push for greater production flexibility to match expanded capacity amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions from the Iran conflict and quota disagreements with Saudi Arabia—remains the dominant recent development. This reduced the group to 11 members and highlighted fractures over output limits, yet no additional departures have followed. Reports in June flagged Iraq weighing an exit unless quotas rose, while August coverage noted Venezuela considering withdrawal, but both countries have stayed in the organization. Core OPEC+ producers have since focused on phased quota adjustments and 2027 baseline reviews without triggering further exits. With only months left in 2026 and remaining members prioritizing coordinated supply management, trader consensus assigns a 61.5% implied probability to no further departures.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย