US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying or burying centrifuge infrastructure and leaving the status of roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium uncertain amid restricted IAEA access. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework with commitments to IAEA-supervised downblending or removal of stockpiles and negotiations toward a final deal, extending Iran's breakout timeline according to US assessments. With only four months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution date, trader consensus at 95.7% for "No" reflects these verified setbacks and diplomatic momentum. Scenarios that could still shift odds include undetected material diversion enabling rapid weaponization or collapse of talks prompting an accelerated program.