Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging infrastructure, eliminating key personnel, and burying stockpiles of uranium enriched to 60 percent. IAEA assessments confirm lost continuity of safeguards and slowed reconstruction, while U.S. intelligence estimates that any decision to weaponize would now require nine to twelve months. Ongoing bilateral talks mediated by Oman, including demands for facility dismantlement and material transfer, have produced limited progress amid enforcement of sanctions and verification requirements. These combined military setbacks and diplomatic constraints sustain trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027, though unresolved stockpiles and reconstruction activity introduce residual uncertainty.