US intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released by the ODNI, concluded that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan by 2027 and prefers unification without force, dialing back prior concerns about imminent military action in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment, echoed across official reports, has anchored trader consensus at 91.3% for "No," reflecting the absence of verifiable PLA mobilization or escalation signals in the past month amid routine coercive exercises. Ongoing US deterrence, Taiwan's defensive preparations, and China's economic priorities further diminish perceived invasion risks by year-end, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or regional conflicts could shift odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
$19,597,654 ปริมาณ
$19,597,654 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
รับ 4%
ใช่
$19,597,654 ปริมาณ
$19,597,654 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
รับ 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released by the ODNI, concluded that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan by 2027 and prefers unification without force, dialing back prior concerns about imminent military action in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment, echoed across official reports, has anchored trader consensus at 91.3% for "No," reflecting the absence of verifiable PLA mobilization or escalation signals in the past month amid routine coercive exercises. Ongoing US deterrence, Taiwan's defensive preparations, and China's economic priorities further diminish perceived invasion risks by year-end, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or regional conflicts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,597,654วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released by the ODNI, concluded that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan by 2027 and prefers unification without force, dialing back prior concerns about imminent military action in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment, echoed across official reports, has anchored trader consensus at 91.3% for "No," reflecting the absence of verifiable PLA mobilization or escalation signals in the past month amid routine coercive exercises. Ongoing US deterrence, Taiwan's defensive preparations, and China's economic priorities further diminish perceived invasion risks by year-end, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or regional conflicts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$19,597,654วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, released by the ODNI, concluded that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan by 2027 and prefers unification without force, dialing back prior concerns about imminent military action in the Taiwan Strait. This assessment, echoed across official reports, has anchored trader consensus at 91.3% for "No," reflecting the absence of verifiable PLA mobilization or escalation signals in the past month amid routine coercive exercises. Ongoing US deterrence, Taiwan's defensive preparations, and China's economic priorities further diminish perceived invasion risks by year-end, though sudden diplomatic breakdowns or regional conflicts could shift odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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