Traders assign a 96% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine air and naval incursions, coast guard patrols east of the island, and maritime law enforcement operations without visible preparations for large-scale amphibious assault. Recent months show reduced monthly aerial sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone compared with prior years, alongside ongoing U.S.-China diplomatic engagement ahead of a planned Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan continues defense enhancements, including drone procurement and readiness exercises, while cross-strait economic and political channels remain active. An invasion within the narrow remaining window would require rapid, observable force mobilization that has not materialized. Late shifts could still arise from sudden diplomatic breakdown or internal Chinese leadership decisions, though structural logistical and political constraints make such escalation improbable before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
4% โอกาส
$42,646,075 ปริมาณ
$42,646,075 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
รับ 3.25%
ใช่
4% โอกาส
$42,646,075 ปริมาณ
$42,646,075 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
รับ 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine air and naval incursions, coast guard patrols east of the island, and maritime law enforcement operations without visible preparations for large-scale amphibious assault. Recent months show reduced monthly aerial sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone compared with prior years, alongside ongoing U.S.-China diplomatic engagement ahead of a planned Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan continues defense enhancements, including drone procurement and readiness exercises, while cross-strait economic and political channels remain active. An invasion within the narrow remaining window would require rapid, observable force mobilization that has not materialized. Late shifts could still arise from sudden diplomatic breakdown or internal Chinese leadership decisions, though structural logistical and political constraints make such escalation improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,646,075วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine air and naval incursions, coast guard patrols east of the island, and maritime law enforcement operations without visible preparations for large-scale amphibious assault. Recent months show reduced monthly aerial sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone compared with prior years, alongside ongoing U.S.-China diplomatic engagement ahead of a planned Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan continues defense enhancements, including drone procurement and readiness exercises, while cross-strait economic and political channels remain active. An invasion within the narrow remaining window would require rapid, observable force mobilization that has not materialized. Late shifts could still arise from sudden diplomatic breakdown or internal Chinese leadership decisions, though structural logistical and political constraints make such escalation improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$0วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157ce2d67...Traders assign a 96% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 because Beijing has sustained gray-zone pressure through routine air and naval incursions, coast guard patrols east of the island, and maritime law enforcement operations without visible preparations for large-scale amphibious assault. Recent months show reduced monthly aerial sorties into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone compared with prior years, alongside ongoing U.S.-China diplomatic engagement ahead of a planned Xi-Trump summit. Taiwan continues defense enhancements, including drone procurement and readiness exercises, while cross-strait economic and political channels remain active. An invasion within the narrow remaining window would require rapid, observable force mobilization that has not materialized. Late shifts could still arise from sudden diplomatic breakdown or internal Chinese leadership decisions, though structural logistical and political constraints make such escalation improbable before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย