China's military faces significant capability shortfalls for a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, including insufficient lift capacity and naval gunfire support, according to assessments from Taiwan's defense ministry and external analyses. Leadership purges within the People's Liberation Army in 2026 have further disrupted command structures essential for complex operations. Beijing has instead emphasized gray-zone measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea normalization around the island. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these factors underpin trader consensus against an invasion. Potential shifts could stem from an abrupt Taiwan independence declaration, major U.S. policy changes, or unforeseen escalatory decisions by Chinese leadership.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
4% โอกาส
$42,645,634 ปริมาณ
$42,645,634 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
รับ 3.25%
ใช่
4% โอกาส
$42,645,634 ปริมาณ
$42,645,634 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
รับ 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China's military faces significant capability shortfalls for a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, including insufficient lift capacity and naval gunfire support, according to assessments from Taiwan's defense ministry and external analyses. Leadership purges within the People's Liberation Army in 2026 have further disrupted command structures essential for complex operations. Beijing has instead emphasized gray-zone measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea normalization around the island. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these factors underpin trader consensus against an invasion. Potential shifts could stem from an abrupt Taiwan independence declaration, major U.S. policy changes, or unforeseen escalatory decisions by Chinese leadership.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,645,634วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China's military faces significant capability shortfalls for a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, including insufficient lift capacity and naval gunfire support, according to assessments from Taiwan's defense ministry and external analyses. Leadership purges within the People's Liberation Army in 2026 have further disrupted command structures essential for complex operations. Beijing has instead emphasized gray-zone measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea normalization around the island. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these factors underpin trader consensus against an invasion. Potential shifts could stem from an abrupt Taiwan independence declaration, major U.S. policy changes, or unforeseen escalatory decisions by Chinese leadership.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$42,645,634วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...China's military faces significant capability shortfalls for a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan, including insufficient lift capacity and naval gunfire support, according to assessments from Taiwan's defense ministry and external analyses. Leadership purges within the People's Liberation Army in 2026 have further disrupted command structures essential for complex operations. Beijing has instead emphasized gray-zone measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea normalization around the island. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, these factors underpin trader consensus against an invasion. Potential shifts could stem from an abrupt Taiwan independence declaration, major U.S. policy changes, or unforeseen escalatory decisions by Chinese leadership.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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