Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the brief remaining timeframe and absence of verified large-scale amphibious mobilization, naval sealift expansion, or leadership signals of imminent action. Recent patterns include contained PLA activity such as July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and steady coast guard patrols, alongside Taiwan’s August defense exercises testing production relocation and communications resilience. U.S. intelligence assessments and observed PLA leadership adjustments have further deferred previously discussed readiness timelines. Diplomatic and economic cross-strait linkages add stability. While unscripted provocations, rapid capability shifts, or unforeseen leadership changes could still trigger escalation, such scenarios carry low probability before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วจีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
จีนจะบุกไต้หวันภายในสิ้นปี 2026 หรือไม่?
ใช่
$39,571,100 ปริมาณ
$39,571,100 ปริมาณ
ใช่
$39,571,100 ปริมาณ
$39,571,100 ปริมาณ
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ผู้ตัดสินผล
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.3% probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the brief remaining timeframe and absence of verified large-scale amphibious mobilization, naval sealift expansion, or leadership signals of imminent action. Recent patterns include contained PLA activity such as July 2026 live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait and steady coast guard patrols, alongside Taiwan’s August defense exercises testing production relocation and communications resilience. U.S. intelligence assessments and observed PLA leadership adjustments have further deferred previously discussed readiness timelines. Diplomatic and economic cross-strait linkages add stability. While unscripted provocations, rapid capability shifts, or unforeseen leadership changes could still trigger escalation, such scenarios carry low probability before year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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