NATO allies continue to face Russian hybrid actions, including repeated drone incursions and airspace violations over Poland and Romania, plus incidents such as the suspected explosive drone at a German airport in August 2026. These prompted urgent Article 4 consultations and collective condemnations by the North Atlantic Council but stopped short of any armed attack on member territory that would activate Article 5. The July 2026 Ankara summit produced a formal reaffirmation of the collective defense commitment by all 32 members, including the United States, alongside increased European defense spending and sustained support for Ukraine. With Russia occupied in Ukraine and no verified cross-border military strike on a NATO state, traders assign only an 8% chance of invocation before the end of 2026.