This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on arms through the Lebanese Armed Forces have advanced in phases since the 2024 ceasefire, with the first stage south of the Litani River reported complete by early 2026 and monthly progress reports submitted to the cabinet. Hezbollah has consistently rejected these initiatives, including a February 2026 four-month timeline for the next phase, maintaining that its weapons serve national defense and dismissing the process as serving Israeli interests. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extensions and direct negotiations into June 2026 link further de-escalation to verifiable restrictions on non-state armed groups, while Hezbollah spokesmen have reiterated no immediate disarmament plans amid regional tensions. Trader sentiment reflects these structural barriers and the absence of enforceable deadlines or Hezbollah buy-in.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on arms through the Lebanese Armed Forces have advanced in phases since the 2024 ceasefire, with the first stage south of the Litani River reported complete by early 2026 and monthly progress reports submitted to the cabinet. Hezbollah has consistently rejected these initiatives, including a February 2026 four-month timeline for the next phase, maintaining that its weapons serve national defense and dismissing the process as serving Israeli interests. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extensions and direct negotiations into June 2026 link further de-escalation to verifiable restrictions on non-state armed groups, while Hezbollah spokesmen have reiterated no immediate disarmament plans amid regional tensions. Trader sentiment reflects these structural barriers and the absence of enforceable deadlines or Hezbollah buy-in.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 20 2026
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the trigger,” underscoring continued resistance
Apr 19 2026
Qassem sets cease‑fire terms and warns that any truce must be mutual;
December 31 drops to 21%11%
he repeats that Hezbollah will keep its weapons until Israel fully withdraws, dampening hopes of a disarmament announcement
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Mar 2 2026
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of
December 31 plunges to 38%18%
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of concession as a negative signal
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on arms through the Lebanese Armed Forces have advanced in phases since the 2024 ceasefire, with the first stage south of the Litani River reported complete by early 2026 and monthly progress reports submitted to the cabinet. Hezbollah has consistently rejected these initiatives, including a February 2026 four-month timeline for the next phase, maintaining that its weapons serve national defense and dismissing the process as serving Israeli interests. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extensions and direct negotiations into June 2026 link further de-escalation to verifiable restrictions on non-state armed groups, while Hezbollah spokesmen have reiterated no immediate disarmament plans amid regional tensions. Trader sentiment reflects these structural barriers and the absence of enforceable deadlines or Hezbollah buy-in.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Lebanese government efforts to establish a state monopoly on arms through the Lebanese Armed Forces have advanced in phases since the 2024 ceasefire, with the first stage south of the Litani River reported complete by early 2026 and monthly progress reports submitted to the cabinet. Hezbollah has consistently rejected these initiatives, including a February 2026 four-month timeline for the next phase, maintaining that its weapons serve national defense and dismissing the process as serving Israeli interests. Ongoing U.S.-facilitated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extensions and direct negotiations into June 2026 link further de-escalation to verifiable restrictions on non-state armed groups, while Hezbollah spokesmen have reiterated no immediate disarmament plans amid regional tensions. Trader sentiment reflects these structural barriers and the absence of enforceable deadlines or Hezbollah buy-in.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
Apr 25 2026
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a
April 30 rises to 4%4%
Hezbollah’s senior official publicly declares that “disarmament is an Israeli‑American demand” and that the group will only consider it after Israel fully withdraws, prompting a brief rally to 4 % before the
Apr 23 2026
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to
April 30 dips to 0%4%
Hezbollah’s senior MP Ali Fayyad publicly rejects any direct negotiations with Israel while Qassem again declares the group will not surrender its weapons, prompting the market to slide back to 0 %
Apr 20 2026
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the
April 30 rises to 4%2%
Israeli drones strike a Hezbollah vehicle in southern Lebanon, a retaliation after Qassem’s recent statement that “Hezbollah will not allow anyone to disarm it,” reinforcing the militia’s refusal to lay down arms
Apr 20 2026
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the
April 30 dips to 0%1%
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam declares the government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah “irreversible,” but Qassem counters that Hezbollah’s fighters will keep “hands on the trigger,” underscoring continued resistance
Apr 19 2026
Qassem sets cease‑fire terms and warns that any truce must be mutual;
December 31 drops to 21%11%
he repeats that Hezbollah will keep its weapons until Israel fully withdraws, dampening hopes of a disarmament announcement
Apr 9 2026
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept
April 30 dips to 3%2%
Reuters reports Israel’s push for direct talks with Lebanon “as soon as possible” on Hezbollah disarmament, while Qassem’s televised speech re‑asserts the group will not accept any concessions
Apr 9 2026
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal
April 30 dips to 1%4%
Qassem’s televised address to “resilient and sacrificial Lebanese” rejects any talks on disarmament and warns against Israeli‑backed negotiations, reinforcing Hezbollah’s refusal to lay down arms
Mar 2 2026
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of
December 31 plunges to 38%18%
In a televised address Qassem announces a “framework” that begins only after Israel ends all aggression, implying no immediate disarmament – traders interpret the lack of concession as a negative signal
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