Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues prioritizing gray-zone coercion, maritime patrols, and capability development over immediate large-scale action. Taiwan’s August 31 defense report and recent analyses highlight persistent PLA gaps in sustained amphibious operations and logistics, alongside leadership disruptions from military purges, with force modernization timelines extending into the 2030s. Activity in the past month has featured routine combat readiness patrols, expanded coast guard presence east of Taiwan, and joint exercises, but no shift toward imminent invasion preparations. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and Beijing’s focus on long-term encirclement tactics further support the current pricing. A rapid escalation from miscalculation remains a low-probability scenario that could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<1% โอกาส
$2,101,806 ปริมาณ
$2,101,806 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$2,101,806 ปริมาณ
$2,101,806 ปริมาณ
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues prioritizing gray-zone coercion, maritime patrols, and capability development over immediate large-scale action. Taiwan’s August 31 defense report and recent analyses highlight persistent PLA gaps in sustained amphibious operations and logistics, alongside leadership disruptions from military purges, with force modernization timelines extending into the 2030s. Activity in the past month has featured routine combat readiness patrols, expanded coast guard presence east of Taiwan, and joint exercises, but no shift toward imminent invasion preparations. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and Beijing’s focus on long-term encirclement tactics further support the current pricing. A rapid escalation from miscalculation remains a low-probability scenario that could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,101,806วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues prioritizing gray-zone coercion, maritime patrols, and capability development over immediate large-scale action. Taiwan’s August 31 defense report and recent analyses highlight persistent PLA gaps in sustained amphibious operations and logistics, alongside leadership disruptions from military purges, with force modernization timelines extending into the 2030s. Activity in the past month has featured routine combat readiness patrols, expanded coast guard presence east of Taiwan, and joint exercises, but no shift toward imminent invasion preparations. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and Beijing’s focus on long-term encirclement tactics further support the current pricing. A rapid escalation from miscalculation remains a low-probability scenario that could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,101,806วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues prioritizing gray-zone coercion, maritime patrols, and capability development over immediate large-scale action. Taiwan’s August 31 defense report and recent analyses highlight persistent PLA gaps in sustained amphibious operations and logistics, alongside leadership disruptions from military purges, with force modernization timelines extending into the 2030s. Activity in the past month has featured routine combat readiness patrols, expanded coast guard presence east of Taiwan, and joint exercises, but no shift toward imminent invasion preparations. Scheduled diplomatic engagements and Beijing’s focus on long-term encirclement tactics further support the current pricing. A rapid escalation from miscalculation remains a low-probability scenario that could still influence outcomes before the deadline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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