China’s military assessments and recent official reports indicate the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, joint sustainment, and combat experience for a complex cross-strait landing operation, directing exercises instead toward blockade, quarantine, and encirclement tactics. Record coast-guard deployments and air-defense zone activity in 2026 reflect sustained gray-zone pressure without crossing into kinetic invasion thresholds. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and supplementary defense budgets have accelerated asymmetric capabilities, including long-range missiles and cyber units, while U.S. and allied deterrence efforts continue. Analysts note no fixed 2027 timeline from Beijing, with economic costs and capability gaps cited as major constraints; these factors align with the market’s 88.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs by the end of 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว12% โอกาส
$3,207,941 ปริมาณ
$3,207,941 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2027
รับ 3.25%
12% โอกาส
$3,207,941 ปริมาณ
$3,207,941 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2027
รับ 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s military assessments and recent official reports indicate the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, joint sustainment, and combat experience for a complex cross-strait landing operation, directing exercises instead toward blockade, quarantine, and encirclement tactics. Record coast-guard deployments and air-defense zone activity in 2026 reflect sustained gray-zone pressure without crossing into kinetic invasion thresholds. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and supplementary defense budgets have accelerated asymmetric capabilities, including long-range missiles and cyber units, while U.S. and allied deterrence efforts continue. Analysts note no fixed 2027 timeline from Beijing, with economic costs and capability gaps cited as major constraints; these factors align with the market’s 88.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,207,941วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s military assessments and recent official reports indicate the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, joint sustainment, and combat experience for a complex cross-strait landing operation, directing exercises instead toward blockade, quarantine, and encirclement tactics. Record coast-guard deployments and air-defense zone activity in 2026 reflect sustained gray-zone pressure without crossing into kinetic invasion thresholds. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and supplementary defense budgets have accelerated asymmetric capabilities, including long-range missiles and cyber units, while U.S. and allied deterrence efforts continue. Analysts note no fixed 2027 timeline from Beijing, with economic costs and capability gaps cited as major constraints; these factors align with the market’s 88.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$3,207,941วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2028ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...China’s military assessments and recent official reports indicate the People’s Liberation Army currently lacks sufficient amphibious lift, joint sustainment, and combat experience for a complex cross-strait landing operation, directing exercises instead toward blockade, quarantine, and encirclement tactics. Record coast-guard deployments and air-defense zone activity in 2026 reflect sustained gray-zone pressure without crossing into kinetic invasion thresholds. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense and supplementary defense budgets have accelerated asymmetric capabilities, including long-range missiles and cyber units, while U.S. and allied deterrence efforts continue. Analysts note no fixed 2027 timeline from Beijing, with economic costs and capability gaps cited as major constraints; these factors align with the market’s 88.5% implied probability that no invasion occurs by the end of 2027.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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