US diplomatic efforts under the current administration have centered on restarting talks with Russia and Ukraine through envoys, including recent visits to Moscow and Kyiv, yet these have produced no formal recognition of Russian sovereignty over any Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. Longstanding US policy, rooted in the Welles Doctrine and reinforced by congressional restrictions on funding activities that acknowledge Russian claims, continues to prioritize Ukraine’s territorial integrity in official statements. Ukrainian leaders have rejected proposals involving de jure recognition as incompatible with their constitution, while recent multilateral discussions in London ended without agreement on territorial terms. Traders assign a 96% probability to “No” due to the absence of any binding US action or announced shift amid stalled negotiations. A late-2026 breakthrough in US-mediated talks that includes explicit sovereignty concessions before year-end remains a narrow pathway that could alter the outcome.