Recent polling and forecasts show a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly seven points on the generic congressional ballot, tightening several Republican-held Senate seats ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader pricing on the Polymarket contract places the highest probabilities on the Ohio special election, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine finishing within five points, reflecting open seats, vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins, and competitive matchups like James Talarico versus Ken Paxton in Texas and Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers in Michigan. Cook Political Report ratings have shifted New Hampshire into toss-up territory while maintaining multiple battlegrounds as highly contested. Late-cycle developments in candidate recruitment, turnout among key voting blocs, and any shifts in the national mood could still alter margins in these races.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$64,033 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
83%
Alaska
72%
Kansas
70%
Michigan
65%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Nebraska
47%
Maine
38%
New Hampshire
36%
South Carolina
43%
North Carolina
27%
Florida (Special)
25%
Georgia
20%
Minnesota
16%
New Mexico
13%
Montana
9%
Colorado
5%
Virginia
5%
$64,033 ปริมาณ
Texas
$7,132 ปริมาณ
83%
Alaska
$2,789 ปริมาณ
72%
Kansas
$556 ปริมาณ
70%
Michigan
$2,743 ปริมาณ
65%
Iowa
$5,657 ปริมาณ
62%
Ohio (Special)
$3,967 ปริมาณ
56%
Nebraska
$3,719 ปริมาณ
47%
Maine
$1,119 ปริมาณ
38%
New Hampshire
$2,402 ปริมาณ
36%
South Carolina
$109 ปริมาณ
43%
North Carolina
$5,817 ปริมาณ
27%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 ปริมาณ
25%
Georgia
$2,057 ปริมาณ
20%
Minnesota
$9,915 ปริมาณ
16%
New Mexico
$6,665 ปริมาณ
13%
Montana
$2,990 ปริมาณ
9%
Colorado
$2,599 ปริมาณ
5%
Virginia
$1,344 ปริมาณ
5%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecasts show a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly seven points on the generic congressional ballot, tightening several Republican-held Senate seats ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader pricing on the Polymarket contract places the highest probabilities on the Ohio special election, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine finishing within five points, reflecting open seats, vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins, and competitive matchups like James Talarico versus Ken Paxton in Texas and Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers in Michigan. Cook Political Report ratings have shifted New Hampshire into toss-up territory while maintaining multiple battlegrounds as highly contested. Late-cycle developments in candidate recruitment, turnout among key voting blocs, and any shifts in the national mood could still alter margins in these races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$64,033วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecasts show a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly seven points on the generic congressional ballot, tightening several Republican-held Senate seats ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader pricing on the Polymarket contract places the highest probabilities on the Ohio special election, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine finishing within five points, reflecting open seats, vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins, and competitive matchups like James Talarico versus Ken Paxton in Texas and Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers in Michigan. Cook Political Report ratings have shifted New Hampshire into toss-up territory while maintaining multiple battlegrounds as highly contested. Late-cycle developments in candidate recruitment, turnout among key voting blocs, and any shifts in the national mood could still alter margins in these races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$64,033วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent polling and forecasts show a national environment favoring Democrats by roughly seven points on the generic congressional ballot, tightening several Republican-held Senate seats ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader pricing on the Polymarket contract places the highest probabilities on the Ohio special election, Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, and Maine finishing within five points, reflecting open seats, vulnerable incumbents such as Susan Collins, and competitive matchups like James Talarico versus Ken Paxton in Texas and Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers in Michigan. Cook Political Report ratings have shifted New Hampshire into toss-up territory while maintaining multiple battlegrounds as highly contested. Late-cycle developments in candidate recruitment, turnout among key voting blocs, and any shifts in the national mood could still alter margins in these races.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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