Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature open seats or narrow polling margins that explain their lead in trader probabilities for the smallest victory margin. Texas shows recent surveys placing Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa within three points, while Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Nevada display comparable tightness driven by term-limited incumbents, shifting suburban coalitions, and post-primary dynamics. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting and multi-candidate field add uncertainty around final margins. These factors sustain close implied probabilities among the top five outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as debates, turnout shifts in battleground counties, or economic indicators could widen or narrow gaps and reorder the field before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วTexas 21.2%
Alaska 13.1%
Ohio 12.6%
Georgia 12.0%
$18,503 ปริมาณ
$18,503 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
21%
Alaska
13%
Ohio
13%
Georgia
12%
Nevada
11%
Florida
9%
Iowa
7%
Oregon
5%
Kansas
4%
Wisconsin
4%
Colorado
3%
Vermont
3%
Minnesota
3%
New Hampshire
3%
Arizona
2%
New Mexico
2%
Michigan
2%
Maine
<1%
Texas 21.2%
Alaska 13.1%
Ohio 12.6%
Georgia 12.0%
$18,503 ปริมาณ
$18,503 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,784 ปริมาณ
21%
Alaska
$284 ปริมาณ
13%
Ohio
$845 ปริมาณ
13%
Georgia
$1,015 ปริมาณ
12%
Nevada
$3,882 ปริมาณ
11%
Florida
$976 ปริมาณ
9%
Iowa
$1,869 ปริมาณ
7%
Oregon
$346 ปริมาณ
5%
Kansas
$3,234 ปริมาณ
4%
Wisconsin
$1,562 ปริมาณ
4%
Colorado
$273 ปริมาณ
3%
Vermont
$196 ปริมาณ
3%
Minnesota
$329 ปริมาณ
3%
New Hampshire
$549 ปริมาณ
3%
Arizona
$307 ปริมาณ
2%
New Mexico
$328 ปริมาณ
2%
Michigan
$349 ปริมาณ
2%
Maine
$375 ปริมาณ
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature open seats or narrow polling margins that explain their lead in trader probabilities for the smallest victory margin. Texas shows recent surveys placing Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa within three points, while Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Nevada display comparable tightness driven by term-limited incumbents, shifting suburban coalitions, and post-primary dynamics. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting and multi-candidate field add uncertainty around final margins. These factors sustain close implied probabilities among the top five outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as debates, turnout shifts in battleground counties, or economic indicators could widen or narrow gaps and reorder the field before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,503วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature open seats or narrow polling margins that explain their lead in trader probabilities for the smallest victory margin. Texas shows recent surveys placing Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa within three points, while Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Nevada display comparable tightness driven by term-limited incumbents, shifting suburban coalitions, and post-primary dynamics. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting and multi-candidate field add uncertainty around final margins. These factors sustain close implied probabilities among the top five outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as debates, turnout shifts in battleground counties, or economic indicators could widen or narrow gaps and reorder the field before November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$18,503วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Several 2026 gubernatorial contests feature open seats or narrow polling margins that explain their lead in trader probabilities for the smallest victory margin. Texas shows recent surveys placing Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa within three points, while Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, and Nevada display comparable tightness driven by term-limited incumbents, shifting suburban coalitions, and post-primary dynamics. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting and multi-candidate field add uncertainty around final margins. These factors sustain close implied probabilities among the top five outcomes. Late-cycle developments such as debates, turnout shifts in battleground counties, or economic indicators could widen or narrow gaps and reorder the field before November 3.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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