OpenAI’s lack of any public launch or confirmed timeline for a standalone social network or integrated social feed through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Reports from April 2025 described an early internal prototype pairing ChatGPT image generation with a social feed, yet subsequent product updates have centered on model iterations, ads testing, and features like OpenAI Presence and Health rather than social infrastructure. Hardware initiatives tied to the 2025 io acquisition also target 2026 device launches without social components. While a late-year surprise integration remains possible, the absence of developer signals, regulatory filings, or executive confirmation sustains trader conviction that OpenAI will prioritize core large language model advancements over social platform expansion this year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว8% โอกาส
$62,840 ปริมาณ
$62,840 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
8% โอกาส
$62,840 ปริมาณ
$62,840 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s lack of any public launch or confirmed timeline for a standalone social network or integrated social feed through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Reports from April 2025 described an early internal prototype pairing ChatGPT image generation with a social feed, yet subsequent product updates have centered on model iterations, ads testing, and features like OpenAI Presence and Health rather than social infrastructure. Hardware initiatives tied to the 2025 io acquisition also target 2026 device launches without social components. While a late-year surprise integration remains possible, the absence of developer signals, regulatory filings, or executive confirmation sustains trader conviction that OpenAI will prioritize core large language model advancements over social platform expansion this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$62,840วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s lack of any public launch or confirmed timeline for a standalone social network or integrated social feed through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Reports from April 2025 described an early internal prototype pairing ChatGPT image generation with a social feed, yet subsequent product updates have centered on model iterations, ads testing, and features like OpenAI Presence and Health rather than social infrastructure. Hardware initiatives tied to the 2025 io acquisition also target 2026 device launches without social components. While a late-year surprise integration remains possible, the absence of developer signals, regulatory filings, or executive confirmation sustains trader conviction that OpenAI will prioritize core large language model advancements over social platform expansion this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$62,840วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s lack of any public launch or confirmed timeline for a standalone social network or integrated social feed through mid-2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 release. Reports from April 2025 described an early internal prototype pairing ChatGPT image generation with a social feed, yet subsequent product updates have centered on model iterations, ads testing, and features like OpenAI Presence and Health rather than social infrastructure. Hardware initiatives tied to the 2025 io acquisition also target 2026 device launches without social components. While a late-year surprise integration remains possible, the absence of developer signals, regulatory filings, or executive confirmation sustains trader conviction that OpenAI will prioritize core large language model advancements over social platform expansion this year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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