As the April 30 deadline passed without the Iranian regime collapsing—despite sustained 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis, war escalation, and US-Israel airstrikes—traders have priced "No" at 100%, reflecting unyielding control by security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without agreement in mid-April, with Tehran's latest proposal on April 28 offering no concessions amid ongoing military tensions, yet no defections or uprisings materialized to threaten Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority. While Reza Pahlavi's European tour highlighted opposition momentum, institutional loyalty and internet shutdowns preserved stability; only extraordinary late-breaking events like mass IRGC mutiny or foreign invasion could retroactively challenge resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
$52,714,900 ปริมาณ
$52,714,900 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
$52,714,900 ปริมาณ
$52,714,900 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. As the April 30 deadline passed without the Iranian regime collapsing—despite sustained 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis, war escalation, and US-Israel airstrikes—traders have priced "No" at 100%, reflecting unyielding control by security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without agreement in mid-April, with Tehran's latest proposal on April 28 offering no concessions amid ongoing military tensions, yet no defections or uprisings materialized to threaten Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority. While Reza Pahlavi's European tour highlighted opposition momentum, institutional loyalty and internet shutdowns preserved stability; only extraordinary late-breaking events like mass IRGC mutiny or foreign invasion could retroactively challenge resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,714,900วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. As the April 30 deadline passed without the Iranian regime collapsing—despite sustained 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis, war escalation, and US-Israel airstrikes—traders have priced "No" at 100%, reflecting unyielding control by security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without agreement in mid-April, with Tehran's latest proposal on April 28 offering no concessions amid ongoing military tensions, yet no defections or uprisings materialized to threaten Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority. While Reza Pahlavi's European tour highlighted opposition momentum, institutional loyalty and internet shutdowns preserved stability; only extraordinary late-breaking events like mass IRGC mutiny or foreign invasion could retroactively challenge resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$52,714,900วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
As the April 30 deadline passed without the Iranian regime collapsing—despite sustained 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic crisis, war escalation, and US-Israel airstrikes—traders have priced "No" at 100%, reflecting unyielding control by security forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Recent US-Iran negotiations in Islamabad concluded without agreement in mid-April, with Tehran's latest proposal on April 28 offering no concessions amid ongoing military tensions, yet no defections or uprisings materialized to threaten Supreme Leader Khamenei's authority. While Reza Pahlavi's European tour highlighted opposition momentum, institutional loyalty and internet shutdowns preserved stability; only extraordinary late-breaking events like mass IRGC mutiny or foreign invasion could retroactively challenge resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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