Trader consensus reflects 99.2% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war and prior unrest. Brutal crackdowns quashed nationwide protests sparked by economic collapse in late December 2025–January 2026, killing thousands per human rights reports, with security forces—including Revolutionary Guards—maintaining control through mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and checkpoints as recently as late March. Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes have damaged military and economic assets like oil exports but prompted no verified elite defections or mass uprisings in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could arise from IRGC mutinies, renewed large-scale protests, or leadership vacuum post-Ayatollah Khamenei, though the 12-day window limits feasibility.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วระบอบการปกครองอิหร่านจะล่มสลายภายในวันที่ 30 เมษายนหรือไม่?
ระบอบการปกครองอิหร่านจะล่มสลายภายในวันที่ 30 เมษายนหรือไม่?
ใช่
$34,349,819 ปริมาณ
$34,349,819 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
ใช่
$34,349,819 ปริมาณ
$34,349,819 ปริมาณ
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects 99.2% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war and prior unrest. Brutal crackdowns quashed nationwide protests sparked by economic collapse in late December 2025–January 2026, killing thousands per human rights reports, with security forces—including Revolutionary Guards—maintaining control through mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and checkpoints as recently as late March. Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes have damaged military and economic assets like oil exports but prompted no verified elite defections or mass uprisings in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could arise from IRGC mutinies, renewed large-scale protests, or leadership vacuum post-Ayatollah Khamenei, though the 12-day window limits feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,349,819วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects 99.2% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war and prior unrest. Brutal crackdowns quashed nationwide protests sparked by economic collapse in late December 2025–January 2026, killing thousands per human rights reports, with security forces—including Revolutionary Guards—maintaining control through mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and checkpoints as recently as late March. Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes have damaged military and economic assets like oil exports but prompted no verified elite defections or mass uprisings in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could arise from IRGC mutinies, renewed large-scale protests, or leadership vacuum post-Ayatollah Khamenei, though the 12-day window limits feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$34,350,991วันสิ้นสุด
Apr 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 5, 2026, 12:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 99.2% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling by April 30, driven by its demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war and prior unrest. Brutal crackdowns quashed nationwide protests sparked by economic collapse in late December 2025–January 2026, killing thousands per human rights reports, with security forces—including Revolutionary Guards—maintaining control through mass arrests, internet shutdowns, and checkpoints as recently as late March. Ongoing US and Israeli airstrikes have damaged military and economic assets like oil exports but prompted no verified elite defections or mass uprisings in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could arise from IRGC mutinies, renewed large-scale protests, or leadership vacuum post-Ayatollah Khamenei, though the 12-day window limits feasibility.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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