Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and the subsequent US-Israeli strikes have fueled hardliner accusations of a "coup" against figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian. These rhetorical claims, prominent in July 2026 amid disputes over US truce negotiations and Supreme National Security Council influence, reflect factional tensions between ultra-hardliners, the IRGC, and other elements but have not produced a verified coup attempt. The regime's survival through wartime leadership decapitation and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and economic concessions contribute to trader consensus on limited near-term probability of such an event by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$2,115,813 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
11%
$2,115,813 ปริมาณ
December 31
$74,587 ปริมาณ
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and the subsequent US-Israeli strikes have fueled hardliner accusations of a "coup" against figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian. These rhetorical claims, prominent in July 2026 amid disputes over US truce negotiations and Supreme National Security Council influence, reflect factional tensions between ultra-hardliners, the IRGC, and other elements but have not produced a verified coup attempt. The regime's survival through wartime leadership decapitation and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and economic concessions contribute to trader consensus on limited near-term probability of such an event by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,115,813วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and the subsequent US-Israeli strikes have fueled hardliner accusations of a "coup" against figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian. These rhetorical claims, prominent in July 2026 amid disputes over US truce negotiations and Supreme National Security Council influence, reflect factional tensions between ultra-hardliners, the IRGC, and other elements but have not produced a verified coup attempt. The regime's survival through wartime leadership decapitation and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and economic concessions contribute to trader consensus on limited near-term probability of such an event by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,115,813วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles within Iran's leadership following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination and the subsequent US-Israeli strikes have fueled hardliner accusations of a "coup" against figures such as Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and President Masoud Pezeshkian. These rhetorical claims, prominent in July 2026 amid disputes over US truce negotiations and Supreme National Security Council influence, reflect factional tensions between ultra-hardliners, the IRGC, and other elements but have not produced a verified coup attempt. The regime's survival through wartime leadership decapitation and ongoing diplomatic maneuvering over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and economic concessions contribute to trader consensus on limited near-term probability of such an event by year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย