Iran’s post-war leadership transition, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and greater IRGC influence following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, has reinforced centralized control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable developments, such as Iranian strikes on June 9–10 and high-level talks with UAE officials on June 11, demonstrate the regime’s continued ability to coordinate military and diplomatic actions without evident internal fractures. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 1.7% because no major factional defections, protests, or leadership challenges have materialized in the past month. A sudden elite split or external shock could still alter this assessment in the narrow remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใช่
$1,786,798 ปริมาณ
$1,786,798 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
ใช่
$1,786,798 ปริมาณ
$1,786,798 ปริมาณ
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war leadership transition, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and greater IRGC influence following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, has reinforced centralized control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable developments, such as Iranian strikes on June 9–10 and high-level talks with UAE officials on June 11, demonstrate the regime’s continued ability to coordinate military and diplomatic actions without evident internal fractures. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 1.7% because no major factional defections, protests, or leadership challenges have materialized in the past month. A sudden elite split or external shock could still alter this assessment in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,786,798วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-war leadership transition, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and greater IRGC influence following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, has reinforced centralized control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable developments, such as Iranian strikes on June 9–10 and high-level talks with UAE officials on June 11, demonstrate the regime’s continued ability to coordinate military and diplomatic actions without evident internal fractures. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 1.7% because no major factional defections, protests, or leadership challenges have materialized in the past month. A sudden elite split or external shock could still alter this assessment in the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,786,798วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 30, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-war leadership transition, including the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and greater IRGC influence following the February 2026 conflict and April ceasefire, has reinforced centralized control over security forces and decision-making. Recent verifiable developments, such as Iranian strikes on June 9–10 and high-level talks with UAE officials on June 11, demonstrate the regime’s continued ability to coordinate military and diplomatic actions without evident internal fractures. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 1.7% because no major factional defections, protests, or leadership challenges have materialized in the past month. A sudden elite split or external shock could still alter this assessment in the narrow remaining window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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