Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated high-level purges of the People’s Liberation Army and Politburo figures drives the 96.1% “No” probability on a coup attempt before 2027. Since 2022, over 100 senior PLA officers have been removed, including Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026, on disciplinary and corruption grounds that analysts tie to demands for absolute loyalty. These actions, paired with the absence of verified challenges or elite defections, reinforce trader consensus that the opaque system remains under firm central control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. While sudden health developments, major external crises triggering blame, or undetected factional fractures could still shift dynamics, current evidence points to continued dominance rather than imminent instability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว4% โอกาส
$155,209 ปริมาณ
$155,209 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
4% โอกาส
$155,209 ปริมาณ
$155,209 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated high-level purges of the People’s Liberation Army and Politburo figures drives the 96.1% “No” probability on a coup attempt before 2027. Since 2022, over 100 senior PLA officers have been removed, including Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026, on disciplinary and corruption grounds that analysts tie to demands for absolute loyalty. These actions, paired with the absence of verified challenges or elite defections, reinforce trader consensus that the opaque system remains under firm central control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. While sudden health developments, major external crises triggering blame, or undetected factional fractures could still shift dynamics, current evidence points to continued dominance rather than imminent instability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$155,209วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated high-level purges of the People’s Liberation Army and Politburo figures drives the 96.1% “No” probability on a coup attempt before 2027. Since 2022, over 100 senior PLA officers have been removed, including Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026, on disciplinary and corruption grounds that analysts tie to demands for absolute loyalty. These actions, paired with the absence of verified challenges or elite defections, reinforce trader consensus that the opaque system remains under firm central control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. While sudden health developments, major external crises triggering blame, or undetected factional fractures could still shift dynamics, current evidence points to continued dominance rather than imminent instability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$155,209วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of power through repeated high-level purges of the People’s Liberation Army and Politburo figures drives the 96.1% “No” probability on a coup attempt before 2027. Since 2022, over 100 senior PLA officers have been removed, including Central Military Commission members such as Zhang Youxia in early 2026, on disciplinary and corruption grounds that analysts tie to demands for absolute loyalty. These actions, paired with the absence of verified challenges or elite defections, reinforce trader consensus that the opaque system remains under firm central control ahead of the 2027 Party Congress. While sudden health developments, major external crises triggering blame, or undetected factional fractures could still shift dynamics, current evidence points to continued dominance rather than imminent instability.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย