US military forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 operation in Caracas, transferring him to New York to face longstanding narco-terrorism charges. Subsequent US actions in 2026 have centered on airstrikes against Iranian leadership and facilities, joint counter-narcotics operations with regional partners, and vessel interdictions in the Caribbean, without additional seizures of sitting heads of state. By early September, no comparable extraction missions or public indications of imminent plans have emerged amid ongoing diplomatic fallout, legal proceedings for Maduro, and shifting priorities toward drug networks and other regional stability efforts. Traders price the low likelihood of another such event before year-end based on this pattern of targeted but non-repetitive enforcement actions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
6% โอกาส
$81,303 ปริมาณ
$81,303 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
6% โอกาส
$81,303 ปริมาณ
$81,303 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US military forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 operation in Caracas, transferring him to New York to face longstanding narco-terrorism charges. Subsequent US actions in 2026 have centered on airstrikes against Iranian leadership and facilities, joint counter-narcotics operations with regional partners, and vessel interdictions in the Caribbean, without additional seizures of sitting heads of state. By early September, no comparable extraction missions or public indications of imminent plans have emerged amid ongoing diplomatic fallout, legal proceedings for Maduro, and shifting priorities toward drug networks and other regional stability efforts. Traders price the low likelihood of another such event before year-end based on this pattern of targeted but non-repetitive enforcement actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$81,303วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US military forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 operation in Caracas, transferring him to New York to face longstanding narco-terrorism charges. Subsequent US actions in 2026 have centered on airstrikes against Iranian leadership and facilities, joint counter-narcotics operations with regional partners, and vessel interdictions in the Caribbean, without additional seizures of sitting heads of state. By early September, no comparable extraction missions or public indications of imminent plans have emerged amid ongoing diplomatic fallout, legal proceedings for Maduro, and shifting priorities toward drug networks and other regional stability efforts. Traders price the low likelihood of another such event before year-end based on this pattern of targeted but non-repetitive enforcement actions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$81,303วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 1, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...US military forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 operation in Caracas, transferring him to New York to face longstanding narco-terrorism charges. Subsequent US actions in 2026 have centered on airstrikes against Iranian leadership and facilities, joint counter-narcotics operations with regional partners, and vessel interdictions in the Caribbean, without additional seizures of sitting heads of state. By early September, no comparable extraction missions or public indications of imminent plans have emerged amid ongoing diplomatic fallout, legal proceedings for Maduro, and shifting priorities toward drug networks and other regional stability efforts. Traders price the low likelihood of another such event before year-end based on this pattern of targeted but non-repetitive enforcement actions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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