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Teknolohiya·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Market icon
Teknolohiya·AI

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

22% tsansa
Polymarket

$47,297 Vol.

22% tsansa
Polymarket

$47,297 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus reflects a 78.5% implied probability for "No" as frontier AI models remain far short of the 90% threshold on the FrontierMath benchmark, with OpenAI's GPT-5.4 topping the leaderboard at 47.6% overall and just 38% on the ultra-challenging Tier 4 problems featuring unsolved research questions, per Epoch AI's March 2026 evaluations. Incremental progress from recent releases—Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at 40% on Tiers 1-3 and Google's Gemini 3 Flash nearby—stems from enhanced reasoning scaffolds and scaling compute, yet reveals persistent gaps in novel mathematical discovery. With nine months until resolution, key catalysts include anticipated GPT-6 or Claude 5 launches, though historical benchmark saturation timelines suggest 90% remains a steep hurdle absent paradigm-shifting architectures.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,297
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus reflects a 78.5% implied probability for "No" as frontier AI models remain far short of the 90% threshold on the FrontierMath benchmark, with OpenAI's GPT-5.4 topping the leaderboard at 47.6% overall and just 38% on the ultra-challenging Tier 4 problems featuring unsolved research questions, per Epoch AI's March 2026 evaluations. Incremental progress from recent releases—Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 at 40% on Tiers 1-3 and Google's Gemini 3 Flash nearby—stems from enhanced reasoning scaffolds and scaling compute, yet reveals persistent gaps in novel mathematical discovery. With nine months until resolution, key catalysts include anticipated GPT-6 or Claude 5 launches, though historical benchmark saturation timelines suggest 90% remains a steep hurdle absent paradigm-shifting architectures.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,297
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 22% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 22¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 22% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $47.3K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 12, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" ay 22% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 22% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.