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Halalan·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

CA-04 Primary Winners

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Halalan·Mga Pangunahing Kaalaman

CA-04 Primary Winners

$20,721 Vol.

Jun 2, 2026
Polymarket

$20,721 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,502 Vol.

98%

Eric Jones

$4,052 Vol.

95%

Trevor Merrell

$6,288 Vol.

15%

Heath Fulkerson

$218 Vol.

10%

Mandy Ghusar

$728 Vol.

6%

Sharon Brown

$1,605 Vol.

6%

Laurie MacKenzie

$710 Vol.

4%

John Wesley Tyler

$618 Vol.

45%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In California's 4th Congressional District's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D), a veteran lawmaker with strong Democratic Party of California backing and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, leads early fundraising but faces a formidable intraparty challenge from Eric Jones (D), a former investment executive endorsed by Our Revolution who raised $3.2 million emphasizing economic opportunity and countering extremism. A crowded field of six Republicans and one independent likely splits anti-incumbent votes in this Solid Democratic district (PVI D+17), redrawn slightly less favorably for Democrats by Proposition 50 last November. No recent polls exist, but early voting begins May 4 and voter registration closes May 18, with both Democrats favored to advance absent surprises.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,721
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 2, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.In California's 4th Congressional District's top-two primary on June 2, 2026, incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D), a veteran lawmaker with strong Democratic Party of California backing and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, leads early fundraising but faces a formidable intraparty challenge from Eric Jones (D), a former investment executive endorsed by Our Revolution who raised $3.2 million emphasizing economic opportunity and countering extremism. A crowded field of six Republicans and one independent likely splits anti-incumbent votes in this Solid Democratic district (PVI D+17), redrawn slightly less favorably for Democrats by Proposition 50 last November. No recent polls exist, but early voting begins May 4 and voter registration closes May 18, with both Democrats favored to advance absent surprises.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,721
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jun 2, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "CA-04 Primary Winners" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 8 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Mike Thompson" sa 98%, sinusundan ng "Eric Jones" sa 95%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 98¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 98% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "CA-04 Primary Winners" ay naka-generate ng $20.7K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Feb 26, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "CA-04 Primary Winners," i-browse ang 8 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "CA-04 Primary Winners" ay "Mike Thompson" sa 98%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 98% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Eric Jones" sa 95%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "CA-04 Primary Winners" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.