California's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi's retirement announcement after nearly four decades. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats at roughly 64 percent compared to 7 percent Republican, and nonpartisan primary results advanced two Democratic candidates—state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—to the November 3, 2026 general election. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. This structural advantage, combined with minimal Republican presence on the ballot, drives the market's 97 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A viable Republican surge or major late development affecting turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateCA-11 House Election Winner
CA-11 House Election Winner
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
3%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,884 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$2,112 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi's retirement announcement after nearly four decades. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats at roughly 64 percent compared to 7 percent Republican, and nonpartisan primary results advanced two Democratic candidates—state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—to the November 3, 2026 general election. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. This structural advantage, combined with minimal Republican presence on the ballot, drives the market's 97 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A viable Republican surge or major late development affecting turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$7,996Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi's retirement announcement after nearly four decades. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats at roughly 64 percent compared to 7 percent Republican, and nonpartisan primary results advanced two Democratic candidates—state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—to the November 3, 2026 general election. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. This structural advantage, combined with minimal Republican presence on the ballot, drives the market's 97 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A viable Republican surge or major late development affecting turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,996Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 11th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Nancy Pelosi's retirement announcement after nearly four decades. Voter registration heavily favors Democrats at roughly 64 percent compared to 7 percent Republican, and nonpartisan primary results advanced two Democratic candidates—state Senator Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan—to the November 3, 2026 general election. Forecasters from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. This structural advantage, combined with minimal Republican presence on the ballot, drives the market's 97 percent implied probability for a Democratic winner. A viable Republican surge or major late development affecting turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in the district indicate limited pathways for such shifts.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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