Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor markets and resurgent inflation pressures that have curtailed rate cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—driven by an oil price spike from Iran-related tensions, with monthly gains hitting 0.9%, the largest since 2022. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, adding 178,000 jobs, while the March FOMC statement maintained the 3.50%-3.75% target range, its dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026. Minutes revealed some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for updated guidance.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWalang pagbabago 81%
25 bps na pagbaba 13%
25 bps na pagtaas 3.9%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps 2.5%
$3,683,143 Vol.
$3,683,143 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
2%
25 bps na pagbaba
13%
Walang pagbabago
81%
25 bps na pagtaas
4%
50+ bps na pagtaas
1%
Walang pagbabago 81%
25 bps na pagbaba 13%
25 bps na pagtaas 3.9%
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps 2.5%
$3,683,143 Vol.
$3,683,143 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
Pagbaba ng higit sa 50 bps
$165,705 Vol.
2%
25 bps na pagbaba
$114,782 Vol.
13%
Walang pagbabago
$183,062 Vol.
81%
25 bps na pagtaas
$3,023,291 Vol.
4%
50+ bps na pagtaas
$196,303 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor markets and resurgent inflation pressures that have curtailed rate cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—driven by an oil price spike from Iran-related tensions, with monthly gains hitting 0.9%, the largest since 2022. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, adding 178,000 jobs, while the March FOMC statement maintained the 3.50%-3.75% target range, its dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026. Minutes revealed some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for updated guidance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$3,683,143Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor markets and resurgent inflation pressures that have curtailed rate cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—driven by an oil price spike from Iran-related tensions, with monthly gains hitting 0.9%, the largest since 2022. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, adding 178,000 jobs, while the March FOMC statement maintained the 3.50%-3.75% target range, its dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026. Minutes revealed some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for updated guidance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$3,683,143Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 29, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price an 80.5% implied probability of no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor markets and resurgent inflation pressures that have curtailed rate cut expectations. March 2026 CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—driven by an oil price spike from Iran-related tensions, with monthly gains hitting 0.9%, the largest since 2022. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%, adding 178,000 jobs, while the March FOMC statement maintained the 3.50%-3.75% target range, its dot plot signaling just one cut in 2026. Minutes revealed some officials' openness to hikes amid elevated inflation risks. Traders eye the April 28-29 meeting for updated guidance.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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