Polymarket traders price India's 2026 annual CPI inflation with a fragmented consensus, the 3.75%-4.49% bin leading at 31.5% amid closely contested lower ranges like 1.50%-2.24% (27.5%) and below 0.75% (25.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the full-year trajectory. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.40% year-over-year—the highest in over a year—driven by food inflation climbing to 3.87%, prompting the Reserve Bank of India's April MPC to hold the repo rate at 5.25% while revising FY27 projections upward to 4.6% (Q1: 4.0%, core: 4.4%) on West Asia conflict risks elevating oil import costs. Prior low prints (January: 2.75%, February: 3.21%) sustain bets on moderation, with April CPI due May 12 as the key swing factor amid monsoon forecasts and volatile energy prices.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update<0.75% 34%
4.50%+ 27%
1.50% to 2.24% 26%
2.25% to 2.99% 20%
$57,516 Vol.
$57,516 Vol.
<0.75%
28%
0.75% to 1.49%
1%
1.50% to 2.24%
26%
2.25% to 2.99%
22%
3.00% to 3.74%
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
33%
4.50%+
21%
<0.75% 34%
4.50%+ 27%
1.50% to 2.24% 26%
2.25% to 2.99% 20%
$57,516 Vol.
$57,516 Vol.
<0.75%
28%
0.75% to 1.49%
1%
1.50% to 2.24%
26%
2.25% to 2.99%
22%
3.00% to 3.74%
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
33%
4.50%+
21%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price India's 2026 annual CPI inflation with a fragmented consensus, the 3.75%-4.49% bin leading at 31.5% amid closely contested lower ranges like 1.50%-2.24% (27.5%) and below 0.75% (25.5%), reflecting uncertainty over the full-year trajectory. March 2026 CPI rose to 3.40% year-over-year—the highest in over a year—driven by food inflation climbing to 3.87%, prompting the Reserve Bank of India's April MPC to hold the repo rate at 5.25% while revising FY27 projections upward to 4.6% (Q1: 4.0%, core: 4.4%) on West Asia conflict risks elevating oil import costs. Prior low prints (January: 2.75%, February: 3.21%) sustain bets on moderation, with April CPI due May 12 as the key swing factor amid monsoon forecasts and volatile energy prices.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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