Recent numerical weather prediction runs for Chongqing highlight uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under predominantly clear skies and light easterly winds expected on September 7. Ensemble guidance from models like ECMWF and GFS clusters minimum temperatures near 25–27°C, consistent with recent observations of 24–27°C lows amid persistent high pressure, though some members indicate potential for slightly greater cooling if boundary-layer mixing remains suppressed. This range explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 22–26°C, as traders weigh model spread and historical September minima against the risk of urban heat retention or subtle advection shifts. Official verification will depend on the Chongqing meteorological station reading, with updated local forecasts likely refining probabilities before resolution.