**Clear skies, light winds, and a strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula are keeping overnight radiative cooling modest in Madrid, producing a tight cluster of forecast minimum temperatures around 18–20°C for September 4.** Global models and local guidance show the daytime high reaching 37–39°C under mostly clear conditions, with dew points in the low teens to single digits Celsius and winds generally below 5 km/h overnight. These factors limit the rate of surface cooling after sunset, as the warm airmass and low humidity allow efficient longwave radiation loss but without the stronger drops seen under drier or windier setups. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat retention explain why trader-implied probabilities remain nearly even across 18°C (48%), 19°C (49%), and 20°C (49%), while probabilities fall for 17°C or below (45%) and rise only modestly for 21°C or higher. Historical September 4 minima average 17.3°C, but the current warm, stable pattern supports values near or slightly above that baseline. Updated model runs and any late changes in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term drivers.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
17°C or below 90%
24°C 90%
22°C 89%
25°C 89%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
90%
18°C
48%
19°C
49%
20°C
49%
21°C
88%
22°C
89%
23°C
86%
24°C
90%
25°C
89%
26°C
7%
27°C or higher
49%
17°C or below 90%
24°C 90%
22°C 89%
25°C 89%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 4, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
18°C
$0 Vol.
48%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C
$0 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
89%
23°C
$0 Vol.
86%
24°C
$0 Vol.
90%
25°C
$0 Vol.
89%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and a strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula are keeping overnight radiative cooling modest in Madrid, producing a tight cluster of forecast minimum temperatures around 18–20°C for September 4.**
Global models and local guidance show the daytime high reaching 37–39°C under mostly clear conditions, with dew points in the low teens to single digits Celsius and winds generally below 5 km/h overnight. These factors limit the rate of surface cooling after sunset, as the warm airmass and low humidity allow efficient longwave radiation loss but without the stronger drops seen under drier or windier setups.
Ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat retention explain why trader-implied probabilities remain nearly even across 18°C (48%), 19°C (49%), and 20°C (49%), while probabilities fall for 17°C or below (45%) and rise only modestly for 21°C or higher. Historical September 4 minima average 17.3°C, but the current warm, stable pattern supports values near or slightly above that baseline. Updated model runs and any late changes in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light winds, and a strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula are keeping overnight radiative cooling modest in Madrid, producing a tight cluster of forecast minimum temperatures around 18–20°C for September 4.**
Global models and local guidance show the daytime high reaching 37–39°C under mostly clear conditions, with dew points in the low teens to single digits Celsius and winds generally below 5 km/h overnight. These factors limit the rate of surface cooling after sunset, as the warm airmass and low humidity allow efficient longwave radiation loss but without the stronger drops seen under drier or windier setups.
Ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat retention explain why trader-implied probabilities remain nearly even across 18°C (48%), 19°C (49%), and 20°C (49%), while probabilities fall for 17°C or below (45%) and rise only modestly for 21°C or higher. Historical September 4 minima average 17.3°C, but the current warm, stable pattern supports values near or slightly above that baseline. Updated model runs and any late changes in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies, light winds, and a strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula are keeping overnight radiative cooling modest in Madrid, producing a tight cluster of forecast minimum temperatures around 18–20°C for September 4.** Global models and local guidance show the daytime high reaching 37–39°C under mostly clear conditions, with dew points in the low teens to single digits Celsius and winds generally below 5 km/h overnight. These factors limit the rate of surface cooling after sunset, as the warm airmass and low humidity allow efficient longwave radiation loss but without the stronger drops seen under drier or windier setups. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in boundary-layer mixing and urban heat retention explain why trader-implied probabilities remain nearly even across 18°C (48%), 19°C (49%), and 20°C (49%), while probabilities fall for 17°C or below (45%) and rise only modestly for 21°C or higher. Historical September 4 minima average 17.3°C, but the current warm, stable pattern supports values near or slightly above that baseline. Updated model runs and any late changes in cloud cover or wind will be the key near-term drivers.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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