The strong Democratic lean of Minnesota's 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Betty McCollum faces only token primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest and benefits from consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Republican primary candidates remain largely unknown outside local circles, and no recent polling or developments indicate meaningful erosion of the district's structural advantage. Late-cycle national shifts, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican nominee could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly partisan districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 2026 general election.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMN-04 House Election Winner
MN-04 House Election Winner
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
7%
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,370 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$8,000 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Minnesota's 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Betty McCollum faces only token primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest and benefits from consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Republican primary candidates remain largely unknown outside local circles, and no recent polling or developments indicate meaningful erosion of the district's structural advantage. Late-cycle national shifts, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican nominee could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly partisan districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$11,370Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Minnesota's 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Betty McCollum faces only token primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest and benefits from consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Republican primary candidates remain largely unknown outside local circles, and no recent polling or developments indicate meaningful erosion of the district's structural advantage. Late-cycle national shifts, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican nominee could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly partisan districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,370Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of Minnesota's 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Betty McCollum faces only token primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest and benefits from consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Republican primary candidates remain largely unknown outside local circles, and no recent polling or developments indicate meaningful erosion of the district's structural advantage. Late-cycle national shifts, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican nominee could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly partisan districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 2026 general election.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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