Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 63.9% probability for the Democratic Party. Ryan’s 14-point reelection margin in 2024 exceeded the district’s modest Democratic lean and has discouraged stronger Republican recruitment, leaving Jackie Auringer as the main challenger. The June 23 primaries approach with Ryan unopposed on the Democratic side, while the Republican primary proceeds without notable momentum. Historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the seat’s positioning in the Hudson Valley provide the primary context for current trader pricing, though the general election remains months away.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
12%
Democratic Party
64%
$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$1,303 Vol.
12%
Democratic Party
$32,013 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 63.9% probability for the Democratic Party. Ryan’s 14-point reelection margin in 2024 exceeded the district’s modest Democratic lean and has discouraged stronger Republican recruitment, leaving Jackie Auringer as the main challenger. The June 23 primaries approach with Ryan unopposed on the Democratic side, while the Republican primary proceeds without notable momentum. Historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the seat’s positioning in the Hudson Valley provide the primary context for current trader pricing, though the general election remains months away.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$33,316Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 63.9% probability for the Democratic Party. Ryan’s 14-point reelection margin in 2024 exceeded the district’s modest Democratic lean and has discouraged stronger Republican recruitment, leaving Jackie Auringer as the main challenger. The June 23 primaries approach with Ryan unopposed on the Democratic side, while the Republican primary proceeds without notable momentum. Historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the seat’s positioning in the Hudson Valley provide the primary context for current trader pricing, though the general election remains months away.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,316Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in New York’s 18th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, reflected in the market’s 63.9% probability for the Democratic Party. Ryan’s 14-point reelection margin in 2024 exceeded the district’s modest Democratic lean and has discouraged stronger Republican recruitment, leaving Jackie Auringer as the main challenger. The June 23 primaries approach with Ryan unopposed on the Democratic side, while the Republican primary proceeds without notable momentum. Historical midterm patterns favoring the opposition party and the seat’s positioning in the Hudson Valley provide the primary context for current trader pricing, though the general election remains months away.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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