Anthropic currently leads multiple independent leaderboards with Claude Fable 5.1 and the restricted Mythos 5.1 variant following early September releases, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, ties or trails closely on several indices. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 also debuted in the same window, intensifying the race, as Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot push competitive open-weight alternatives at lower cost. Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s recent edge and rapid iteration cadence, tempered by the likelihood of additional flagship updates before year-end that could shift Chatbot Arena or Artificial Analysis rankings.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$155,158 Vol.
30%
OpenAI
28%
xAI
13%
Z.ai
11%
Meta
11%
Moonshot
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
7%
DeepSeek
6%
Microsoft
5%
Amazon
3%
Mistral
3%
Meituan
3%
ByteDance
1%
$155,158 Vol.
30%
OpenAI
28%
xAI
13%
Z.ai
11%
Meta
11%
Moonshot
8%
Alibaba
7%
Baidu
7%
DeepSeek
6%
Microsoft
5%
Amazon
3%
Mistral
3%
Meituan
3%
ByteDance
1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Binuksan ang Market: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic currently leads multiple independent leaderboards with Claude Fable 5.1 and the restricted Mythos 5.1 variant following early September releases, excelling in agentic coding, reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra, released days later, ties or trails closely on several indices. Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash and Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 also debuted in the same window, intensifying the race, as Chinese labs like DeepSeek and Moonshot push competitive open-weight alternatives at lower cost. Trader sentiment reflects Anthropic’s recent edge and rapid iteration cadence, tempered by the likelihood of additional flagship updates before year-end that could shift Chatbot Arena or Artificial Analysis rankings.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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