Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and al-Qaeda-linked JNIM have coordinated offensives since April 2026, capturing Kidal outright and securing partial control or rural influence around Gao while inflicting heavy losses on Malian forces and Russian Africa Corps partners through ambushes such as the July convoy attack near Tabankort. Malian troops and their allies continue to hold key urban strongholds, including the Gao airport and military positions, enabling counterattacks and preventing full rebel consolidation. These developments reflect sustained separatist and jihadist pressure across northern Mali but underscore structural barriers—including fortified defenses, external support for the junta, and the short remaining timeline—to a decisive urban capture by year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 81% probability for no.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
Will Rebels capture Gao by December 31?
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and al-Qaeda-linked JNIM have coordinated offensives since April 2026, capturing Kidal outright and securing partial control or rural influence around Gao while inflicting heavy losses on Malian forces and Russian Africa Corps partners through ambushes such as the July convoy attack near Tabankort. Malian troops and their allies continue to hold key urban strongholds, including the Gao airport and military positions, enabling counterattacks and preventing full rebel consolidation. These developments reflect sustained separatist and jihadist pressure across northern Mali but underscore structural barriers—including fortified defenses, external support for the junta, and the short remaining timeline—to a decisive urban capture by year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 81% probability for no.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$864Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and al-Qaeda-linked JNIM have coordinated offensives since April 2026, capturing Kidal outright and securing partial control or rural influence around Gao while inflicting heavy losses on Malian forces and Russian Africa Corps partners through ambushes such as the July convoy attack near Tabankort. Malian troops and their allies continue to hold key urban strongholds, including the Gao airport and military positions, enabling counterattacks and preventing full rebel consolidation. These developments reflect sustained separatist and jihadist pressure across northern Mali but underscore structural barriers—including fortified defenses, external support for the junta, and the short remaining timeline—to a decisive urban capture by year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 81% probability for no.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if anti-government militant groups capture Gao (https://maps.app.goo.gl/FtqiU2uJhZ1buGgn7) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
The city will be considered captured if anti-government militant groups have established military control over the "Mosquée Koweït مسجد" (https://maps.app.goo.gl/9kHdjxTue43yCFky5) by the resolution date.
If anti-government militant groups come into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants anti-government militant groups de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once anti-government militant groups capture the specified place, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, including video and photo evidence that anti-government militant groups have captured the specified point.
Volume
$864Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 6, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rebels from the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and al-Qaeda-linked JNIM have coordinated offensives since April 2026, capturing Kidal outright and securing partial control or rural influence around Gao while inflicting heavy losses on Malian forces and Russian Africa Corps partners through ambushes such as the July convoy attack near Tabankort. Malian troops and their allies continue to hold key urban strongholds, including the Gao airport and military positions, enabling counterattacks and preventing full rebel consolidation. These developments reflect sustained separatist and jihadist pressure across northern Mali but underscore structural barriers—including fortified defenses, external support for the junta, and the short remaining timeline—to a decisive urban capture by year-end, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 81% probability for no.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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