Reza Pahlavi remains in exile without having entered Iran since before the 1979 revolution, despite public statements expressing readiness to return as soon as conditions allow, potentially even prior to full regime change. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 and subsequent unrest, Iranian security structures have shown resilience while opposition remains fragmented and Pahlavi's domestic support has faced reported setbacks including internal divisions. His spring 2026 European tour and U.S. engagements focused on transition planning and international advocacy, but traders assign low probability to entry by December 31, 2026, reflecting structural barriers, preference for domestically emerging leadership, and absence of enabling mechanisms such as referendums or power shifts.