Recent US military operations against Iran, including strikes that reportedly eliminated key regime figures like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and degraded missile and nuclear assets, have substantially weakened the Islamic Republic and elevated prospects for opposition-led transition. Reza Pahlavi has advanced detailed post-regime plans via the Iran Prosperity Project, outlining an emergency stabilization phase, transitional governance, and eventual referendums on Iran's political structure, while publicly accepting a leadership role if the regime collapses. Persistent barriers include Pahlavi's status as a high-value target, limited explicit US endorsement, donor and opposition divisions, and the need for verifiable internal control shifts before any physical return becomes feasible. Scheduled diplomatic or protest-related events through late 2026 could further influence timing and probability assessments reflected in trader consensus.