Recent U.S.-Iran developments center on airstrikes, naval actions, and economic pressure rather than ground operations. Following the February 2026 joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war and the June Islamabad Memorandum ending major hostilities, the Trump administration has prioritized sanctions, trade isolation, and Strait of Hormuz enforcement through limited strikes. Ongoing technical talks, mediated ceasefires, and a shift toward sustained economic measures have kept ground invasion off the table amid high operational risks and congressional constraints. Traders assign an 83.5% probability to no invasion before 2027, reflecting the current reliance on air, naval, and diplomatic tools alongside the absence of announced troop deployments or regime-change operations requiring occupation.