Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate (94.5% implied probability) at the April 26-28 meeting, reflecting caution amid escalating geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, which has spiked energy costs and cratered consumer confidence to pandemic-era lows. Despite persistent inflation above the 2% target—fueled by a weak yen and rising producer prices—recent BOJ communications and ex-officials emphasize a "wait-and-see" stance during uncertainty, prioritizing fragile growth over aggressive tightening from the current 0.75% benchmark. Solid business sentiment offers some offset, but skin-in-the-game consensus favors stability. A durable Middle East ceasefire, hotter-than-expected April wage data, or yen depreciation below 155/USD could realistically revive 25 basis point hike odds ahead of resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiDeğişiklik yok 95%
25 baz puan artış 5%
Faiz oranlarını düşür <1%
50+ baz puan artış <1%
$715,586 Hac.
$715,586 Hac.
28 Nis 2026
Faiz oranlarını düşür
<1%
Değişiklik yok
95%
25 baz puan artış
5%
50+ baz puan artış
<1%
Değişiklik yok 95%
25 baz puan artış 5%
Faiz oranlarını düşür <1%
50+ baz puan artış <1%
$715,586 Hac.
$715,586 Hac.
28 Nis 2026
Faiz oranlarını düşür
$162,141 Hac.
<1%
Değişiklik yok
$147,779 Hac.
95%
25 baz puan artış
$151,094 Hac.
5%
50+ baz puan artış
$254,573 Hac.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate (94.5% implied probability) at the April 26-28 meeting, reflecting caution amid escalating geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, which has spiked energy costs and cratered consumer confidence to pandemic-era lows. Despite persistent inflation above the 2% target—fueled by a weak yen and rising producer prices—recent BOJ communications and ex-officials emphasize a "wait-and-see" stance during uncertainty, prioritizing fragile growth over aggressive tightening from the current 0.75% benchmark. Solid business sentiment offers some offset, but skin-in-the-game consensus favors stability. A durable Middle East ceasefire, hotter-than-expected April wage data, or yen depreciation below 155/USD could realistically revive 25 basis point hike odds ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Hacim
$715,586Bitiş Tarihi
28 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate (94.5% implied probability) at the April 26-28 meeting, reflecting caution amid escalating geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, which has spiked energy costs and cratered consumer confidence to pandemic-era lows. Despite persistent inflation above the 2% target—fueled by a weak yen and rising producer prices—recent BOJ communications and ex-officials emphasize a "wait-and-see" stance during uncertainty, prioritizing fragile growth over aggressive tightening from the current 0.75% benchmark. Solid business sentiment offers some offset, but skin-in-the-game consensus favors stability. A durable Middle East ceasefire, hotter-than-expected April wage data, or yen depreciation below 155/USD could realistically revive 25 basis point hike odds ahead of resolution.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Hacim
$715,586Bitiş Tarihi
28 Nis 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back no change in the Bank of Japan's policy rate (94.5% implied probability) at the April 26-28 meeting, reflecting caution amid escalating geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict, which has spiked energy costs and cratered consumer confidence to pandemic-era lows. Despite persistent inflation above the 2% target—fueled by a weak yen and rising producer prices—recent BOJ communications and ex-officials emphasize a "wait-and-see" stance during uncertainty, prioritizing fragile growth over aggressive tightening from the current 0.75% benchmark. Solid business sentiment offers some offset, but skin-in-the-game consensus favors stability. A durable Middle East ceasefire, hotter-than-expected April wage data, or yen depreciation below 155/USD could realistically revive 25 basis point hike odds ahead of resolution.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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