Elevated nationalization of the 2026 House contests as a referendum on the Trump administration has driven trader consensus toward 115-130 million total votes, with the leading ranges clustered tightly due to competing turnout signals. Democratic primary and special-election overperformance, coupled with generic-ballot leads near D+6 and lower presidential approval, point to stronger opposition mobilization than in prior off-years. Republicans counter with targeted outreach to low-propensity voters from their 2024 coalition and data-driven models, while record primary participation in states like Texas and California suggests baseline engagement above historical 100-115 million midterm totals. Competitive districts, fundraising surges, and economic messaging could widen participation if enthusiasm gaps persist, whereas base fatigue or weaker youth registration might compress totals toward lower ranges.