Traders assign the highest probability to 120-125 million House votes in the 2026 midterms because historical patterns show midterms typically produce 30-point turnout drops from presidential years, yet early mobilization signals and redistricting in states like Texas and California are creating more competitive districts that could boost participation. Recent polling indicates a modest Democratic generic-ballot edge, which often correlates with heightened engagement in battleground areas, while efforts targeting young and non-college voters add uncertainty around the upper end of that range. Broader factors such as voter registration trends and state-level voting rules continue to shape expectations without clear late-cycle catalysts shifting the consensus away from this band.