Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot, holding steady near 5-6 points in recent polling aggregates, form the main driver of trader positioning on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterms. This margin, consistent across multiple surveys since spring, aligns with historical midterm patterns where the president's party faces structural headwinds from turnout and national mood. Redistricting shifts, competitive open seats, and varying state-level dynamics add variance that keeps probabilities distributed across the 190-220 seat range rather than concentrating on any single outcome. Upcoming candidate filings, primary results, and late-cycle polling adjustments remain key variables that could narrow the distribution before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 22%
210-214 15.5%
195-199 14%
200-204 13.3%
$280,383 Обс.
$280,383 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
22%
190-194
12%
195-199
14%
200-204
13%
205-209
12%
210-214
16%
215-219
7%
220-224
5%
225-229
6%
230+
2%
Below 190 22%
210-214 15.5%
195-199 14%
200-204 13.3%
$280,383 Обс.
$280,383 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Below 190
$30,284 Обс.
22%
190-194
$13,345 Обс.
12%
195-199
$32,393 Обс.
14%
200-204
$24,419 Обс.
13%
205-209
$39,343 Обс.
12%
210-214
$15,105 Обс.
16%
215-219
$11,341 Обс.
7%
220-224
$58,847 Обс.
5%
225-229
$24,618 Обс.
6%
230+
$30,688 Обс.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot, holding steady near 5-6 points in recent polling aggregates, form the main driver of trader positioning on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterms. This margin, consistent across multiple surveys since spring, aligns with historical midterm patterns where the president's party faces structural headwinds from turnout and national mood. Redistricting shifts, competitive open seats, and varying state-level dynamics add variance that keeps probabilities distributed across the 190-220 seat range rather than concentrating on any single outcome. Upcoming candidate filings, primary results, and late-cycle polling adjustments remain key variables that could narrow the distribution before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$280,383Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot, holding steady near 5-6 points in recent polling aggregates, form the main driver of trader positioning on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterms. This margin, consistent across multiple surveys since spring, aligns with historical midterm patterns where the president's party faces structural headwinds from turnout and national mood. Redistricting shifts, competitive open seats, and varying state-level dynamics add variance that keeps probabilities distributed across the 190-220 seat range rather than concentrating on any single outcome. Upcoming candidate filings, primary results, and late-cycle polling adjustments remain key variables that could narrow the distribution before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Обсяг
$280,383Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic advantages on the generic congressional ballot, holding steady near 5-6 points in recent polling aggregates, form the main driver of trader positioning on Republican House seats after the 2026 midterms. This margin, consistent across multiple surveys since spring, aligns with historical midterm patterns where the president's party faces structural headwinds from turnout and national mood. Redistricting shifts, competitive open seats, and varying state-level dynamics add variance that keeps probabilities distributed across the 190-220 seat range rather than concentrating on any single outcome. Upcoming candidate filings, primary results, and late-cycle polling adjustments remain key variables that could narrow the distribution before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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