Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 amid a Democratic generic ballot lead of 5-8 points, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across ranges near 190-210 seats because redistricting gains in states like Texas have offset some exposure, while Cook Political Report ratings show 19 toss-ups and a near parity in competitive seats, and forecasts project net Democratic gains in the low double digits. Recent polling averages and special election trends have kept probabilities fluid without decisive separation. Key upcoming catalysts that could consolidate ranges include further shifts in national polling, candidate recruitment outcomes in battlegrounds, primary results, or late-cycle economic and legislative developments that alter turnout expectations among key voting blocs.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRepublican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Below 190 26%
200-204 18.0%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
$288,805 Обс.
$288,805 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Below 190
26%
190-194
15%
195-199
12%
200-204
18%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
5%
220-224
3%
225-229
4%
230+
3%
Below 190 26%
200-204 18.0%
190-194 15%
195-199 12%
$288,805 Обс.
$288,805 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Below 190
$35,129 Обс.
26%
190-194
$13,814 Обс.
15%
195-199
$32,609 Обс.
12%
200-204
$24,860 Обс.
18%
205-209
$40,227 Обс.
11%
210-214
$15,669 Обс.
9%
215-219
$11,463 Обс.
5%
220-224
$59,267 Обс.
3%
225-229
$24,767 Обс.
4%
230+
$31,001 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 amid a Democratic generic ballot lead of 5-8 points, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across ranges near 190-210 seats because redistricting gains in states like Texas have offset some exposure, while Cook Political Report ratings show 19 toss-ups and a near parity in competitive seats, and forecasts project net Democratic gains in the low double digits. Recent polling averages and special election trends have kept probabilities fluid without decisive separation. Key upcoming catalysts that could consolidate ranges include further shifts in national polling, candidate recruitment outcomes in battlegrounds, primary results, or late-cycle economic and legislative developments that alter turnout expectations among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$288,805Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 amid a Democratic generic ballot lead of 5-8 points, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across ranges near 190-210 seats because redistricting gains in states like Texas have offset some exposure, while Cook Political Report ratings show 19 toss-ups and a near parity in competitive seats, and forecasts project net Democratic gains in the low double digits. Recent polling averages and special election trends have kept probabilities fluid without decisive separation. Key upcoming catalysts that could consolidate ranges include further shifts in national polling, candidate recruitment outcomes in battlegrounds, primary results, or late-cycle economic and legislative developments that alter turnout expectations among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$288,805Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republicans enter the 2026 midterms defending a narrow House majority of roughly 218-212 amid a Democratic generic ballot lead of 5-8 points, consistent with the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. Trader sentiment remains dispersed across ranges near 190-210 seats because redistricting gains in states like Texas have offset some exposure, while Cook Political Report ratings show 19 toss-ups and a near parity in competitive seats, and forecasts project net Democratic gains in the low double digits. Recent polling averages and special election trends have kept probabilities fluid without decisive separation. Key upcoming catalysts that could consolidate ranges include further shifts in national polling, candidate recruitment outcomes in battlegrounds, primary results, or late-cycle economic and legislative developments that alter turnout expectations among key voting blocs.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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