Mike Derry holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Calgary-Shaw by-election on September 14, 2026, driven by his June victory in the United Conservative Party nomination contest over Calgary city councillor Dan McLean and the riding’s established UCP strength. The seat opened after former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz resigned, and the governing party’s candidate benefits from historical margins exceeding 3,000 votes in the 2023 general election. NDP nominee Kyle Campbell represents the primary opposition but faces structural challenges in a southwest Calgary riding where UCP support has remained consistent. Minor-party contenders, including Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph and Liberal John Roggeveen, register minimal probabilities reflecting limited organizational presence and historical vote shares. The recent by-election call and candidate declarations have reinforced expectations of a UCP hold without notable late shifts in the short campaign window.