Rapid gains by frontier large language models on FrontierMath Tier 4 (v2), including Claude Fable 5 reaching 87.8% and leading GPT-5.6 variants near 83%, have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds for a ≥90% score before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the benchmark's trajectory since its 2024 launch—models advanced from under 2% to near 88% in under two years through scaling, improved reasoning chains, and the June 2026 error corrections that clarified true capabilities. Upcoming releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others, plus inference-time optimizations, reinforce expectations of saturation soon. Still, plateaus in research-level math or slower progress on the remaining hardest problems could delay the threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
$117,435 Обс.
$117,435 Обс.
$117,435 Обс.
$117,435 Обс.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid gains by frontier large language models on FrontierMath Tier 4 (v2), including Claude Fable 5 reaching 87.8% and leading GPT-5.6 variants near 83%, have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds for a ≥90% score before 2027. Trader consensus reflects the benchmark's trajectory since its 2024 launch—models advanced from under 2% to near 88% in under two years through scaling, improved reasoning chains, and the June 2026 error corrections that clarified true capabilities. Upcoming releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and others, plus inference-time optimizations, reinforce expectations of saturation soon. Still, plateaus in research-level math or slower progress on the remaining hardest problems could delay the threshold.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено



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