AI's experimental models from OpenAI and Google DeepMind reached gold-medal standard on the 2025 IMO by solving five of six problems for 35/42 points under timed conditions, with further gains shown in 2026 benchmarks such as NVIDIA's open-weights model scoring 30/42. Traders assign "No" a 70.5% implied probability primarily because IMO rules restrict official participation to human students, leaving no clear pathway for AI systems to be formally entered or graded alongside contestants in 2026. Key swing factors include potential rule changes, problem difficulty spikes typical of new contests, and the gap between benchmark performance and consistent novel reasoning without tool assistance or special pipelines. Upcoming catalysts center on any 2026 participation announcements or further model releases before the July contest window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
28% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
28% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".AI's experimental models from OpenAI and Google DeepMind reached gold-medal standard on the 2025 IMO by solving five of six problems for 35/42 points under timed conditions, with further gains shown in 2026 benchmarks such as NVIDIA's open-weights model scoring 30/42. Traders assign "No" a 70.5% implied probability primarily because IMO rules restrict official participation to human students, leaving no clear pathway for AI systems to be formally entered or graded alongside contestants in 2026. Key swing factors include potential rule changes, problem difficulty spikes typical of new contests, and the gap between benchmark performance and consistent novel reasoning without tool assistance or special pipelines. Upcoming catalysts center on any 2026 participation announcements or further model releases before the July contest window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Обсяг
$9,346Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".AI's experimental models from OpenAI and Google DeepMind reached gold-medal standard on the 2025 IMO by solving five of six problems for 35/42 points under timed conditions, with further gains shown in 2026 benchmarks such as NVIDIA's open-weights model scoring 30/42. Traders assign "No" a 70.5% implied probability primarily because IMO rules restrict official participation to human students, leaving no clear pathway for AI systems to be formally entered or graded alongside contestants in 2026. Key swing factors include potential rule changes, problem difficulty spikes typical of new contests, and the gap between benchmark performance and consistent novel reasoning without tool assistance or special pipelines. Upcoming catalysts center on any 2026 participation announcements or further model releases before the July contest window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Обсяг
$9,346Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...AI's experimental models from OpenAI and Google DeepMind reached gold-medal standard on the 2025 IMO by solving five of six problems for 35/42 points under timed conditions, with further gains shown in 2026 benchmarks such as NVIDIA's open-weights model scoring 30/42. Traders assign "No" a 70.5% implied probability primarily because IMO rules restrict official participation to human students, leaving no clear pathway for AI systems to be formally entered or graded alongside contestants in 2026. Key swing factors include potential rule changes, problem difficulty spikes typical of new contests, and the gap between benchmark performance and consistent novel reasoning without tool assistance or special pipelines. Upcoming catalysts center on any 2026 participation announcements or further model releases before the July contest window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання