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icon for Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?

Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?

icon for Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?

Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?

Up

98% шанс
Polymarket

$2,931 Обс.

Up

98% шанс
Polymarket

$2,931 Обс.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Expanded electorate size, driven by increased naturalizations and the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-old voters, raised the pool of eligible participants well above the 2023 repeat election baseline of 62.9%. A fragmented, competitive field featuring strong gains for Die Linke and record AfD support created broad mobilization incentives across ideological lines. Midday turnout figures already exceeded prior comparable periods, reflecting these structural and motivational shifts. Trader consensus at 98.5% for higher participation rests on the absence of offsetting barriers in official preparations. Late developments such as adverse weather on election day or unexpected last-minute scandals could still marginally suppress rates, though historical patterns and pre-vote indicators indicate limited scope for reversal.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Обсяг
$2,931
Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070be91...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Expanded electorate size, driven by increased naturalizations and the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-old voters, raised the pool of eligible participants well above the 2023 repeat election baseline of 62.9%. A fragmented, competitive field featuring strong gains for Die Linke and record AfD support created broad mobilization incentives across ideological lines. Midday turnout figures already exceeded prior comparable periods, reflecting these structural and motivational shifts. Trader consensus at 98.5% for higher participation rests on the absence of offsetting barriers in official preparations. Late developments such as adverse weather on election day or unexpected last-minute scandals could still marginally suppress rates, though historical patterns and pre-vote indicators indicate limited scope for reversal.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.

If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.

The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.

If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%. This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%. If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered. The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison. If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Обсяг
$0
Дата завершення
Sep 21, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070be91...

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

"Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?" — це щоденний ринок прогнозів на Polymarket, де трейдери купують і продають акції на те, чи ціна Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? закриється вище ("Up") або нижче ("Down") за початкову ціну протягом вікна щоденний, вказаного в назві. Поточна ринкова ймовірність — 100% для "Up". Ціна 100% означає, що ринок колективно оцінює цей результат з ймовірністю 100%. Ціни оновлюються в реальному часі, реагуючи на живі рухи ціни Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?. Акції правильного результату можна обміняти на $1 кожну після вирішення.

"Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?" — це активний короткостроковий ринок на Polymarket. Торговий обсяг може швидко накопичуватися по мірі просування вікна щоденний — заходьте рано, щоб допомогти встановити шанси до закриття вікна.

Щоб торгувати на "Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?", вирішіть, чи ціна Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? опівдні ET September 20 буде вищою ("Up") або нижчою ("Down") за ціну Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? опівдні ET August 6. Купуйте "Up" якщо вважаєте, що ціна зросте день до дня, або "Down" якщо впаде. Введіть суму та натисніть "Trade". Правильний результат — $1.00 за акцію. Неправильний — $0.

Поточна ймовірність для "Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?" — 100% для "Up", що означає: спільнота Polymarket наразі оцінює ймовірність того, що ціна Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? закриється up протягом цього вікна щоденний, як 100%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, реагуючи на живі дані цін Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?. Протягом дня шанси відображають настрої, що змінюються по мірі розгортання цінової дії. Повертайтеся частіше або торгуйте зараз, поки вікно не закрилося.

Ринок "Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down?" вирішується порівнянням ціни Berlin State Election: Turnout Up or Down? опівдні ET September 20 з опівднем ET August 6, використовуючи хвилинні свічки Binance BERLIN-STATE-ELECTION-TURNOUT/USDT. Якщо ціна September 20 опівдні вища — "Up"; нижча — "Down"; рівна — ринок вирішується 50-50. Деталі в розділі "Rules".