Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 12% and 21%, alongside several parties hovering near the 5% threshold. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 direct constituencies plus district lists, creates uncertainty over overhang mandates and the resulting leveling seats needed to maintain proportionality. The chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 but expanded to 159 after 2023 due to these mechanics. New rules lowering the voting age to 16 and consolidating the ballot add variables to turnout and direct-mandate outcomes. Traders see limited separation among size brackets because small shifts in constituency results or minor-party performance could alter the final total by 10–20 seats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено<143 24%
163+ 21%
148–152 16%
158–162 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<143
24%
143–147
12%
148–152
16%
153–157
10%
158–162
13%
163+
21%
<143 24%
163+ 21%
148–152 16%
158–162 13%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$0 Обс.
24%
143–147
$23 Обс.
12%
148–152
$0 Обс.
16%
153–157
$0 Обс.
10%
158–162
$0 Обс.
13%
163+
$0 Обс.
21%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 12% and 21%, alongside several parties hovering near the 5% threshold. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 direct constituencies plus district lists, creates uncertainty over overhang mandates and the resulting leveling seats needed to maintain proportionality. The chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 but expanded to 159 after 2023 due to these mechanics. New rules lowering the voting age to 16 and consolidating the ballot add variables to turnout and direct-mandate outcomes. Traders see limited separation among size brackets because small shifts in constituency results or minor-party performance could alter the final total by 10–20 seats.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$23Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 12% and 21%, alongside several parties hovering near the 5% threshold. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 direct constituencies plus district lists, creates uncertainty over overhang mandates and the resulting leveling seats needed to maintain proportionality. The chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 but expanded to 159 after 2023 due to these mechanics. New rules lowering the voting age to 16 and consolidating the ballot add variables to turnout and direct-mandate outcomes. Traders see limited separation among size brackets because small shifts in constituency results or minor-party performance could alter the final total by 10–20 seats.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$23Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a fragmented contest for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 12% and 21%, alongside several parties hovering near the 5% threshold. This distribution, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 direct constituencies plus district lists, creates uncertainty over overhang mandates and the resulting leveling seats needed to maintain proportionality. The chamber starts at a statutory minimum of 130 but expanded to 159 after 2023 due to these mechanics. New rules lowering the voting age to 16 and consolidating the ballot add variables to turnout and direct-mandate outcomes. Traders see limited separation among size brackets because small shifts in constituency results or minor-party performance could alter the final total by 10–20 seats.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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