Recent polling averages place the Left Party narrowly ahead or tied with the CDU in the race for the largest vote share ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD close behind in a fragmented field. The CDU-SPD coalition's combined support has declined since 2023, while the Left, CDU, and AfD each hover near 18-22 percent. This distribution leaves little room for decisive separation, as modest shifts in turnout among urban districts or among younger voters could alter the final ordering by just a few points. Trader pricing on narrow victory margins for the Left or CDU aligns with these stable but tight survey results and the absence of major late-breaking events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLinke 2-5% 31%
Linke 0-2% 27%
CDU 0-2% 18%
CDU 2-5% 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
27%
Linke 2-5%
31%
Linke 5-10%
21%
Linke 10%+
3%
CDU 0-2%
18%
CDU 2-5%
11%
CDU 5-10%
10%
CDU 10%+
2%
AfD 0-2%
2%
AfD 2-5%
2%
AfD 5%+
2%
Another party wins
2%
Linke 2-5% 31%
Linke 0-2% 27%
CDU 0-2% 18%
CDU 2-5% 11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
$72 Обс.
27%
Linke 2-5%
$397 Обс.
31%
Linke 5-10%
$61 Обс.
21%
Linke 10%+
$121 Обс.
3%
CDU 0-2%
$26 Обс.
18%
CDU 2-5%
$26 Обс.
11%
CDU 5-10%
$163 Обс.
10%
CDU 10%+
$71 Обс.
2%
AfD 0-2%
$26 Обс.
2%
AfD 2-5%
$26 Обс.
2%
AfD 5%+
$26 Обс.
2%
Another party wins
$90 Обс.
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the Left Party narrowly ahead or tied with the CDU in the race for the largest vote share ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD close behind in a fragmented field. The CDU-SPD coalition's combined support has declined since 2023, while the Left, CDU, and AfD each hover near 18-22 percent. This distribution leaves little room for decisive separation, as modest shifts in turnout among urban districts or among younger voters could alter the final ordering by just a few points. Trader pricing on narrow victory margins for the Left or CDU aligns with these stable but tight survey results and the absence of major late-breaking events.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,104Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place the Left Party narrowly ahead or tied with the CDU in the race for the largest vote share ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD close behind in a fragmented field. The CDU-SPD coalition's combined support has declined since 2023, while the Left, CDU, and AfD each hover near 18-22 percent. This distribution leaves little room for decisive separation, as modest shifts in turnout among urban districts or among younger voters could alter the final ordering by just a few points. Trader pricing on narrow victory margins for the Left or CDU aligns with these stable but tight survey results and the absence of major late-breaking events.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Обсяг
$1,104Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the Left Party narrowly ahead or tied with the CDU in the race for the largest vote share ahead of the September 20 Berlin state election, with the AfD close behind in a fragmented field. The CDU-SPD coalition's combined support has declined since 2023, while the Left, CDU, and AfD each hover near 18-22 percent. This distribution leaves little room for decisive separation, as modest shifts in turnout among urban districts or among younger voters could alter the final ordering by just a few points. Trader pricing on narrow victory margins for the Left or CDU aligns with these stable but tight survey results and the absence of major late-breaking events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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