Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 6th Congressional District into a D+8 lean stronghold centered in Democratic-leaning Sacramento suburbs like Natomas, West Sacramento, and Folsom, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 91.5% to win the open seat previously held by Rep. Ami Bera, now running elsewhere. A crowded Democratic primary field—including former state Sen. Richard Pan, Thien Ho, and Lauren Babb Tomlinson—positions a strong nominee to top the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, who shifted districts in early March. Absent recent polling shifts or scandals, the partisan baseline favors Democrats heavily; upset scenarios include a national GOP midterm wave, low Democratic turnout, or a weakened Democratic general election candidate from primary infighting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,406 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$0 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 6th Congressional District into a D+8 lean stronghold centered in Democratic-leaning Sacramento suburbs like Natomas, West Sacramento, and Folsom, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 91.5% to win the open seat previously held by Rep. Ami Bera, now running elsewhere. A crowded Democratic primary field—including former state Sen. Richard Pan, Thien Ho, and Lauren Babb Tomlinson—positions a strong nominee to top the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, who shifted districts in early March. Absent recent polling shifts or scandals, the partisan baseline favors Democrats heavily; upset scenarios include a national GOP midterm wave, low Democratic turnout, or a weakened Democratic general election candidate from primary infighting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,406Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 6th Congressional District into a D+8 lean stronghold centered in Democratic-leaning Sacramento suburbs like Natomas, West Sacramento, and Folsom, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 91.5% to win the open seat previously held by Rep. Ami Bera, now running elsewhere. A crowded Democratic primary field—including former state Sen. Richard Pan, Thien Ho, and Lauren Babb Tomlinson—positions a strong nominee to top the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, who shifted districts in early March. Absent recent polling shifts or scandals, the partisan baseline favors Democrats heavily; upset scenarios include a national GOP midterm wave, low Democratic turnout, or a weakened Democratic general election candidate from primary infighting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$6,406Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 6th Congressional District into a D+8 lean stronghold centered in Democratic-leaning Sacramento suburbs like Natomas, West Sacramento, and Folsom, driving trader consensus to price Democrats at 91.5% to win the open seat previously held by Rep. Ami Bera, now running elsewhere. A crowded Democratic primary field—including former state Sen. Richard Pan, Thien Ho, and Lauren Babb Tomlinson—positions a strong nominee to top the June 2 top-two primary alongside Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley, who shifted districts in early March. Absent recent polling shifts or scandals, the partisan baseline favors Democrats heavily; upset scenarios include a national GOP midterm wave, low Democratic turnout, or a weakened Democratic general election candidate from primary infighting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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