**xAI has not yet released Grok 5, with earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets having slipped after the model entered training on the Colossus 2 supercluster.** Official confirmation came during the January 2026 Series E round, positioning it as a major scale-up from the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.5 released in July. Recent updates include Grok 4.6 in mid-August and Grok 4.7 slated for mid-September 2026, incorporating supplemental SpaceX engineering data for improved real-world performance. The current public target remains a release before year-end 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the pattern of delays amid rapid 4.x iteration and competitive pressure from other frontier labs. Key catalysts ahead include completion of post-training on the expanded Memphis cluster and any official announcements clarifying multimodal capabilities or parameter variants.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGrok 5 released by...?
Grok 5 released by...?
$10,172 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
10%
November 30
21%
December 31
74%
$10,172 Обс.
October 31
$1,780 Обс.
10%
November 30
$29 Обс.
21%
December 31
$3,285 Обс.
74%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**xAI has not yet released Grok 5, with earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets having slipped after the model entered training on the Colossus 2 supercluster.** Official confirmation came during the January 2026 Series E round, positioning it as a major scale-up from the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.5 released in July. Recent updates include Grok 4.6 in mid-August and Grok 4.7 slated for mid-September 2026, incorporating supplemental SpaceX engineering data for improved real-world performance. The current public target remains a release before year-end 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the pattern of delays amid rapid 4.x iteration and competitive pressure from other frontier labs. Key catalysts ahead include completion of post-training on the expanded Memphis cluster and any official announcements clarifying multimodal capabilities or parameter variants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$10,172Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**xAI has not yet released Grok 5, with earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets having slipped after the model entered training on the Colossus 2 supercluster.** Official confirmation came during the January 2026 Series E round, positioning it as a major scale-up from the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.5 released in July. Recent updates include Grok 4.6 in mid-August and Grok 4.7 slated for mid-September 2026, incorporating supplemental SpaceX engineering data for improved real-world performance. The current public target remains a release before year-end 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the pattern of delays amid rapid 4.x iteration and competitive pressure from other frontier labs. Key catalysts ahead include completion of post-training on the expanded Memphis cluster and any official announcements clarifying multimodal capabilities or parameter variants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$10,172Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**xAI has not yet released Grok 5, with earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 targets having slipped after the model entered training on the Colossus 2 supercluster.** Official confirmation came during the January 2026 Series E round, positioning it as a major scale-up from the 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.5 released in July. Recent updates include Grok 4.6 in mid-August and Grok 4.7 slated for mid-September 2026, incorporating supplemental SpaceX engineering data for improved real-world performance. The current public target remains a release before year-end 2026, with trader consensus reflecting the pattern of delays amid rapid 4.x iteration and competitive pressure from other frontier labs. Key catalysts ahead include completion of post-training on the expanded Memphis cluster and any official announcements clarifying multimodal capabilities or parameter variants.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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