Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination in the August 2026 primary with over 91 percent of the vote, reflecting limited intra-party competition and strong organizational support. Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic tilt, evidenced by its D+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index and unbroken Democratic general election victories since the seat's creation. Fundraising reports show Tokuda outpacing her likely Republican opponent, state Sen. Brenton Awa, by a wide margin ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader consensus around 95 percent for a Democratic win reflects these structural advantages and historical voting patterns in the district. A late scandal, significant health development, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability events given the margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHI-02 House Election Winner
HI-02 House Election Winner
$63,525 Обс.
$63,525 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
6%
$63,525 Обс.
$63,525 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$43,095 Обс.
96%
Republican Party
$20,430 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination in the August 2026 primary with over 91 percent of the vote, reflecting limited intra-party competition and strong organizational support. Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic tilt, evidenced by its D+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index and unbroken Democratic general election victories since the seat's creation. Fundraising reports show Tokuda outpacing her likely Republican opponent, state Sen. Brenton Awa, by a wide margin ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader consensus around 95 percent for a Democratic win reflects these structural advantages and historical voting patterns in the district. A late scandal, significant health development, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability events given the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$63,525Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination in the August 2026 primary with over 91 percent of the vote, reflecting limited intra-party competition and strong organizational support. Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic tilt, evidenced by its D+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index and unbroken Democratic general election victories since the seat's creation. Fundraising reports show Tokuda outpacing her likely Republican opponent, state Sen. Brenton Awa, by a wide margin ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader consensus around 95 percent for a Democratic win reflects these structural advantages and historical voting patterns in the district. A late scandal, significant health development, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability events given the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$63,525Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda secured her party's nomination in the August 2026 primary with over 91 percent of the vote, reflecting limited intra-party competition and strong organizational support. Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a consistent Democratic tilt, evidenced by its D+12 Cook Partisan Voting Index and unbroken Democratic general election victories since the seat's creation. Fundraising reports show Tokuda outpacing her likely Republican opponent, state Sen. Brenton Awa, by a wide margin ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader consensus around 95 percent for a Democratic win reflects these structural advantages and historical voting patterns in the district. A late scandal, significant health development, or national political realignment could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability events given the margin.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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