Beijing's late-July temperatures typically peak near 33–35°C amid peak monsoon moisture and urban heat effects, with official maxima recorded at the Beijing station. Recent model runs show July 31 highs clustering between 33–36°C, differentiated by forecast uncertainty in afternoon convection and cloud cover that can suppress peak readings by 1–2°C or allow clearer skies to push toward 36°C. Short-range guidance from agencies highlights modest thunderstorm chances and variable humidity that spread trader probabilities across the 33–35°C brackets, reflecting both climatological norms and the sensitivity of maximum temperature to small shifts in boundary-layer conditions ahead of the July 31 observation window.