Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 20°C at Cape Town International Airport on May 6, driven by the latest South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts projecting a maximum near 19–20°C amid cloudy conditions and moderate southerly winds from a nearby cut-off low system affecting the Western Cape. Current observations align with this, showing daytime temps peaking around 20°C under overcast skies and coastal influences that cap solar heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover at 20–22°C. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS reinforce stability, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief spikes to 21°C+, though persistent cloud cover and sea breezes make this improbable; final SAWS airport data will confirm resolution by evening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Cape Town on May 6?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 6?
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$45,349 Обс.
$45,349 Обс.
May 6, 2026
13°C or below
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
Yes
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C or higher
No
20°C 100.0%
13°C or below <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$45,349 Обс.
$45,349 Обс.
May 6, 2026
13°C or below
$856 Обс.
No
14°C
$2,311 Обс.
No
15°C
$2,731 Обс.
No
16°C
$3,928 Обс.
No
17°C
$4,174 Обс.
No
18°C
$3,758 Обс.
No
19°C
$11,078 Обс.
No
20°C
$4,334 Обс.
Yes
21°C
$4,754 Обс.
No
22°C
$2,197 Обс.
No
23°C or higher
$5,229 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 20°C at Cape Town International Airport on May 6, driven by the latest South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts projecting a maximum near 19–20°C amid cloudy conditions and moderate southerly winds from a nearby cut-off low system affecting the Western Cape. Current observations align with this, showing daytime temps peaking around 20°C under overcast skies and coastal influences that cap solar heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover at 20–22°C. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS reinforce stability, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief spikes to 21°C+, though persistent cloud cover and sea breezes make this improbable; final SAWS airport data will confirm resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 4, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Обсяг
$45,349Дата завершення
May 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 12:34 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 20°C at Cape Town International Airport on May 6, driven by the latest South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts projecting a maximum near 19–20°C amid cloudy conditions and moderate southerly winds from a nearby cut-off low system affecting the Western Cape. Current observations align with this, showing daytime temps peaking around 20°C under overcast skies and coastal influences that cap solar heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover at 20–22°C. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS reinforce stability, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief spikes to 21°C+, though persistent cloud cover and sea breezes make this improbable; final SAWS airport data will confirm resolution by evening.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$45,349Дата завершення
May 6, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 4, 2026, 12:34 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a highest temperature of exactly 20°C at Cape Town International Airport on May 6, driven by the latest South African Weather Service (SAWS) forecasts projecting a maximum near 19–20°C amid cloudy conditions and moderate southerly winds from a nearby cut-off low system affecting the Western Cape. Current observations align with this, showing daytime temps peaking around 20°C under overcast skies and coastal influences that cap solar heating, consistent with May climatology where average highs hover at 20–22°C. Model ensembles from ECMWF and GFS reinforce stability, with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief spikes to 21°C+, though persistent cloud cover and sea breezes make this improbable; final SAWS airport data will confirm resolution by evening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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