Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 25?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 25?
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$66,761 Обс.
$66,761 Обс.
Apr 25, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
Yes
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
19°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$66,761 Обс.
$66,761 Обс.
Apr 25, 2026
12°C or below
$746 Обс.
No
13°C
$1,965 Обс.
No
14°C
$2,052 Обс.
No
15°C
$2,914 Обс.
No
16°C
$3,672 Обс.
No
17°C
$3,669 Обс.
No
18°C
$4,809 Обс.
No
19°C
$17,792 Обс.
Yes
20°C
$10,412 Обс.
No
21°C
$9,338 Обс.
No
22°C or higher
$9,392 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ET
Обсяг
$66,761Дата завершення
Apr 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$66,761Дата завершення
Apr 25, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 23, 2026, 12:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a 19°C high temperature in Istanbul on April 25, 2026, with 100% implied probability, driven by finalized NOAA hourly observations at Istanbul Airport (LTFM)—the official resolution source—which recorded a peak of 19°C under clear skies, light southerly winds of 5-10 km/h, and low humidity around 40-50%. Stable high-pressure patterns and moderate solar insolation limited further warming beyond this midday maximum, consistent with late-April climatology averaging 16-18°C and following April 24's 18°C high. Scenarios challenging this include rare post-finalization data revisions from instrument calibration errors or quality control audits by NOAA, though such adjustments are infrequent for surface temperature records. Upcoming MGM or ECMWF recaps may provide additional context but won't alter resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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