Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on April 29 reached exactly 24°C at key stations like Barajas Airport and Retiro Park, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data was reported overnight. This aligns with late-April climatological norms for Madrid, where average highs hover around 20–22°C amid mild spring conditions and no unusual heat drivers like föhn winds or heat domes. Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated a cap near 24°C due to stable upper-level troughing inhibiting further warming. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a rare post hoc data revision from AEMET—such as sensor recalibration—but historical precedent shows such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records, with no indications of discrepancies in preliminary bulletins.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Madrid on April 29?
Highest temperature in Madrid on April 29?
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$345,275 Обс.
$345,275 Обс.
Apr 29, 2026
15°C or below
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
15°C or below <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
$345,275 Обс.
$345,275 Обс.
Apr 29, 2026
15°C or below
$1,449 Обс.
No
16°C
$1,764 Обс.
No
17°C
$6,357 Обс.
No
18°C
$10,650 Обс.
No
19°C
$30,261 Обс.
No
20°C
$23,299 Обс.
No
21°C
$52,659 Обс.
No
22°C
$41,340 Обс.
No
23°C
$74,438 Обс.
No
24°C
$33,413 Обс.
Yes
25°C or higher
$69,645 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on April 29 reached exactly 24°C at key stations like Barajas Airport and Retiro Park, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data was reported overnight. This aligns with late-April climatological norms for Madrid, where average highs hover around 20–22°C amid mild spring conditions and no unusual heat drivers like föhn winds or heat domes. Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated a cap near 24°C due to stable upper-level troughing inhibiting further warming. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a rare post hoc data revision from AEMET—such as sensor recalibration—but historical precedent shows such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records, with no indications of discrepancies in preliminary bulletins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 27, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Обсяг
$345,275Дата завершення
Apr 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 12:45 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on April 29 reached exactly 24°C at key stations like Barajas Airport and Retiro Park, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data was reported overnight. This aligns with late-April climatological norms for Madrid, where average highs hover around 20–22°C amid mild spring conditions and no unusual heat drivers like föhn winds or heat domes. Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated a cap near 24°C due to stable upper-level troughing inhibiting further warming. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a rare post hoc data revision from AEMET—such as sensor recalibration—but historical precedent shows such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records, with no indications of discrepancies in preliminary bulletins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$345,275Дата завершення
Apr 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 27, 2026, 12:45 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Official observations from Spain's Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET) confirm Madrid's highest temperature on April 29 reached exactly 24°C at key stations like Barajas Airport and Retiro Park, solidifying trader consensus at 100% implied probability for that outcome as final data was reported overnight. This aligns with late-April climatological norms for Madrid, where average highs hover around 20–22°C amid mild spring conditions and no unusual heat drivers like föhn winds or heat domes. Model forecasts from ECMWF and GFS had anticipated a cap near 24°C due to stable upper-level troughing inhibiting further warming. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty include a rare post hoc data revision from AEMET—such as sensor recalibration—but historical precedent shows such adjustments affect less than 0.1% of daily records, with no indications of discrepancies in preliminary bulletins.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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